You don't see a ton of days filled with first-round upsets on the mens' side at Grand Slams but there are plenty of vulnerable seeds in action on Tuesday. I ended up playing five ATP underdogs, which I will share some reasoning behind. I'll also share my day two card on the women's side — which is surprisingly full of favorites.
ATP Wimbledon Day Two
Prior to the Wimbledon draw, I circled a number of seeds as potential first-round fades. A good chunk of that list will be in action on Tuesday, including:
Pass
I just can't bring myself to fade Djere even as a steep -299 favorite. He will take on Guido Andreozzi (+258) in a battle of two players who have never won a main draw match on grass. I'm just in no rush to back the Argentine underdog on grass.
The same can be said for Schwartzman against Matthew Ebden (+191). While Ebden does have plenty of grass experience (87-46 on all levels), he arrives in London having lost four straight matches on grass this season. Plus, Schwartzman has actually looked decent this year on his worst surface.
And while I think American Francis Tiafoe (-143) ultimately sneaks by Fognini in a matchup of two players that made the third-round here in 2018, his price is now too inflated for my taste (Fognini has never advanced to the fourth round at the All England Club.) Tiafoe also hasn't looked great during his grass tune-ups, which makes it easier to pass here.
Play
Now, I will be fading the other three players (Dominic Thiem, Marin Cilic, Nikoloz Basilashvili) on that fade list based on their current lines.
Cilic obviously sticks out as the only one of the six with grass pedigree. In fact, he made the Wimbledon quarterfinals in three consecutive years prior to a run to the final in 2017. However, he did lose in the second round last year — and, more importantly, he's just in dreadful form this season.
He will take on Frenchman Adrian Mannarino (+267), who recently won his first career title on the grass at Hertogenbosch. The Frenchman has always thrived on the grass but just has had terrible draw luck at Wimbledon. His last three losses here came to either Novak Djokovic or Roger Federer.
Mannarino just comes in with much more confidence and better form on a surface he loves. This price is simply too high to pass on.
One of my annual favorite grass fades is Dominic Thiem, who is very grass-averse. The Austrian, who hasn't played since the French Open, owns just a .500 career record at Wimbledon.
Thiem will get a tough test in the first round against 2017 Wimbledon semifinalist Sam Querrey (+124). The American hasn't had a great year but finally showed some form during a run to the final on the grass at Eastbourne — where his serve was fitting on all cylinders.
While this is Thiem's least favorite surface, it's Querrey's favorite by far. He has a career 66-39 record on grass and is 19-11 at Wimbledon — where he has made the quarterfinals twice. Meanwhile, Thiem has lost in the first or second round in four of his five trips to Wimbledon.
The last seed I will be fading on Tuesday is Basilashvili — who does not fancy playing on grass. He went 0-2 in the two pre-Wimbledon grass tournaments he played. And while he did make a mini-run to the third-round here in 2015, the Georgian failed to qualify the following year and has gone 1-2 the past two years in London.
He will face James Ward (+167), who is certainly not as talented but much more seasoned on this surface with 45 career wins. Ward has had an up-and-down career but comes in with his best form in years after a decent grass swing leading up to this tourney. With the home crowd behind him, I think Ward has a better shot than the 37.5% this line implies.
Two More
I also played two other ATP underdogs against non-seeded players on Day Two at Wimbledon. The logic behind playing Dennis Novak (+102) and Dominik Koepfer (+113) is rather simple: I have both short underdogs as short favorites.
Both players are also competent on the grass and arrive in London in good form.
Koepfer (10-2 on grass this season) is fresh off a grass title at the Ilkey Challenger. He will face Filip Krajinovic in the first-round. The Serb has a ton of talent but he doesn't thrive on grass. Not only has he not played a single grass event in 2019, he has lost his only two grass matches played since 2015.
Korpfer's opponent in that recent Ilkey final? None other than Novak, who then went on to go 3-0 in Wimbledon qualifying. The Austrian boasts a 14-3 record on grass the past two seasons.
And while a majority of those victories came at the Challenger level, he did make the third-round at Wimbledon last year. He will face Martin Fucsovics — who has looked underwhelming during the 2019 grass swing.
Tuesday ATP Wimbledon Bets
- Adrian Mannarino +267
- James Ward +167
- Dominik Koepfer +113
- Denis Novak +102
- Sam Querrey +124/Over 41.5 split*
*one unit split between the total and moneyline
WTA Wimbledon Day Two
I usually don't like as many underdogs on the men's side early on in Grand Slams as I do on the women's side. However, tomorrow is different. While I like five ATP underdogs, I actually fancy all favorites on the women's side. It feels odd but hopefully works out. Here is my Tuesday WTA betting card.
Tuesday WTA Wimbledon Bets
- Paula Badosa Gibert -153
- Monica Niculescu -133
- Lesley Kerkhove -110
- Anna Kalisnkaya -113
- Katie Swan -120
- Sam Stosur -129
I also played a moneyline parlay with Belinda Bencic and Barbora Strycova that pays even money.
