Another packed schedule comes at us from the All England Club on Thursday. Let's delve into a pair of men's matches worth betting on the day.
Here are my bets for Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Emil Ruusuvuori and Alex de Minaur vs Jaume Munar in my July 4th Wimbledon predictions.
Match times are subject to change. Read here for advice on viewing Wimbledon matches.
Wimbledon Odds & Wimbledon Picks
Stefanos Tsitsipas (-714) vs Emil Ruusuvuori (+460)
10:30 a.m. ET
There may be no match that better epitomizes how important matchups are in tennis betting better than this one. Despite Tsitsipas coming off a relatively comfortable win and Ruusuvuori needing to come back from two sets to one down and a break down in the fourth set, I like Ruusuvuori's chances to push the Greek No. 1 here.
I'm sure Tsitsipas would've preferred seeing the lighter serving and hitting Mackenzie McDonald on the other side of the net as well. It's well documented by this point how much he can struggle with pace on quicker courts, especially when it's directed at his one handed backhand.
Ruusuvuori may have entered Wimbledon struggling for form and coming off an illness, but the one thing he has in abundance? Pace and aggression. He's also very error prone, but when an opponent struggles to extend points (as Tsitsipas tends to on quicker surfaces) it kind of bails him out. McDonald was the opposite – he didn't have the natural pace and aggressive mindset – and as a result he was able to extract those mistakes from the Finn.
Ruusuvuori is better equipped than Taro Daniel to push Tsitsipas and Tsitsipas is similarly poorly equipped to put Ruusuvuori with ease. I'll back the world No. 87 in a few capacities to diversify my risk.
Picks: Over 36.5 games (-112 via BetRivers) | Over 3.5 sets (-123 via BetRivers)
Alex de Minaur (-3333) vs Jaume Munar (+1400)
6 a.m. ET
Forgive me for backing one of the chalkiest players on the board on Thursday, but I really do think the total on this match is off by a game or so and should be bet accordingly.
De Minaur goes from playing a decent server and quick courter in James Duckworth to Munar, who isn't as weak as other clay courters from the service line, but who certainly doesn't have a big enough first serve to rack up the cheap points against someone as strong on return as the Aussie.
From the baseline, de Minaur is more comfortable with the lower bounce, more aggressive and the much faster player.
There's just so little to like here for Munar. There's also the likelihood that 1) the man known as "demon" is going to win this in straights and 2) that along the way he'll be able to post a lopsided set score to help this under come in.
Give me the favorite to roll in a matchup that should be ideal for him.
Pick: Under 29.5 games (-110 via bet365)
