We've arrived at what can be described as the best Grand Slam tournament of the year, Wimbledon. The world's best players will converge on the All England Club to vie for the most prestigious prize in tennis, and unlike past years, Novak Djokovic won't enter this one as a favorite.
That honor belongs to the new World No. 1 Jannik Sinner, who will be looking to build off a run to the quarterfinal in 2022 and an appearance in last year's semifinal to take home his first Wimbledon title and his second career Grand Slam trophy.
Will it be an easy path for the man who has lost just three times this year, all on slower courts? Might we see a surprise semifinalist like we've seen in recent tournaments?
Let's break down each quarter and hand out some best bets for Wimbledon. Read on for my Wimbledon prediction and men's draw picks.
Note: All odds came from BetMGM. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches.
Wimbledon Predictions
Quarter 1: Jannik Sinner (-150)
The outlook for Sinner is a bit bizarre. His toughest match projects to come incredibly early in the second round against Matteo Berrettini, one of the kings of grass courts in the last five years.
The former World No. 6 and 2021 Wimbledon finalist has been slowed by injuries over the past couple of seasons, and we didn't get to see him partake in the 2022 running of this tournament after he contracted COVID-19. Even through it all, though, he stepped on to the turf with little form to speak of and each time has done a lot of winning.
Berrettini stands at 39-7 on the grass since his rise to prominence in 2019, and throughout the run most of his losses have come to excellent players like Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and a then-good David Goffin. It hasn't been until his recent spell with injuries that he's appeared vulnerable, but even then he took home consecutive titles on grass in 2022, pushed Alcaraz to four sets here last year after defeating Alexander Zverev, and this season made the final of Stuttgart before falling to Jack Draper.
That's certainly a landmine for Sinner, but should he advance past Berrettini the only reasonable obstacle in his way should be Daniil Medvedev if the Russians make it to the quarters. With Nicolas Jarry starved for form and Ben Shelton still learning to play grass-court tennis, you have to back the man who's gone 38-3 this season to once again use a fast court to his advantage and hit through opponents with his world class forehand.
Quarter 2: Ugo Humbert (+2800)
It's not as if I'm simply advancing Humbert into the semifinals here in a quarter which includes Carlos Alcaraz, but this price is somewhat bizarre and too good to pass up.
Yes, the Frenchman's been a perennial disappointment at Grand Slams throughout his career, but he did reach the fourth round here on his debut back in 2019 and has put up a couple of excellent grass seasons. He's now inside the world's top 20, where he rightfully belongs, and while he's lost three matches in a row these courts should suit his play style which features a huge serve, very flat groundstrokes and excellent skills at the net.
Alcaraz is a big favorite to come out of this draw, and he certainly deserves to be considering this is arguably the weakest section with the grass-averse Casper Ruud sitting on the other side of the quarter. I'm just the least bit skeptical here, however, given the Spaniard didn't exactly look amazing in his final two French Open matches despite lifting the trophy. He comes into this one after splitting his only two matches on grass.
Quarter 3: Jack Draper (+300)
The time is now for Draper, who has put in a considerable amount of work over the last two years to overcome the physical obstacles that have prevented him from realizing his potential as a top-10 player. He began working with Wayne Ferreira back in May and the results have been astounding thus far on the grass, where he fought through a tough draw in Stuttgart to take home his first ATP title before knocking off Alcaraz the following week at Queen's Club.
The young lefty has all the tools to be a force on grass, serving big with a massive two-handed backhand which flies through the court and expert touch around the net. Fast courts like these are friendly to him as well, given he can shorten points and retain energy, and while he's just 1-2 in two appearances at Wimbledon, the Brit should feel as though these specific courts are special. He took the first set he ever played at Wimbledon back in 2021 at the age of 19 against someone named Djokovic and returned the next season to give Alex de Minaur a great fight in the second round.
Now, he's a fully-formed player and should be ready to make a long-awaited breakthrough with the work he's done off the court both in the gym and with Ferreira. This is the wackiest quarter of them all, and one that's absolutely stacked with the likes of Taylor Fritz, Alexander Zverev, Andrey Rublev, Sebastian Korda, Lorenzo Musetti, Stefanos Tsitsipas and even Alejandro Tabilo. I still think this is the way to go, considering Zverev and Rublev looked a bit shaky in their grass-court tune-ups, and it seems like we've seen a British breakthrough on these grounds each of the last few years.
Quarter 4: Alex de Minaur (+450), Felix Auger-Aliassime (+1800)
What more does the young Canadian have to do to earn some respect around here? I realize he's played just one match on grass this year, and he had to retire with an adductor injury, but assuming he's even just 85% here you've got to like his chances in this draw.
Auger-Aliassime sizzled on arguably his worst surface this spring, going 12-5 on clay, and he will now return to grass where his powerful game can play up and his biggest weakness — unforced errors — should be muted in shorter rallies. He's a former quarterfinalist here and is playing in a quarter with Hubert Hurkacz, who's failed to perform at Grand Slams around just three nice runs in five seasons, and Novak Djokovic, who tore his meniscus just a month ago.
This could be anyone's quarters given what we've just said about the top seeds, and this is my favorite way to go. I don't trust Francisco Cerundolo mentally and Holger Rune is lacking for form.
I do think Alex de Minaur is a fellow sleeper here, however, after he won on the grass in Hertogenbosch a couple of weeks back. His backhand slice down the line has been a new and effective weapon this year and should be a real problem with the way slices play up on grass. He made the fourth round here two years ago and has an excellent record on grass, going 48-23 across all levels in his career.
Outrights: Sinner (+185), Draper (+2000)
It's still hard to fully doubt Sinner here, even if he might have a tough second match of the championships. He should have a clear path to the semifinals once Berrettini is out of the way and you'd certainly have to favor him against Carlos Alcaraz in the semis, should we get a renewal of the Jan-Carlos rivalry. He's been the clear better player when the two have met on quick courts, and if it's not Alcaraz he would enter that match as an even-larger favorite.
The third quarter is filled with sleepers, but it isn't populated with anyone who should be relatively expected to defeat Sinner on a fast court, and Djokovic's injury doesn't exactly inspire confidence that a final boss could slow Sinner in his tracks.
I do think Draper, in that third quarter, is the only real way to back a longshot if you're interested in doing so. You can't play two weeks of tennis until you do, as Nick Kyrgios proved a couple of years ago by making the final here, and Draper's conditioning has appeared to be in a much better place this year than it was for the last two seasons.
He has all the talent in the world, enough to take out anyone in this draw, and if he picks up a head of steam here he may be hard to take down on home soil.
