Novak Djokovic has won Wimbledon four years in a row, and he's the odds-on favorite to make it five in two weeks. With many of his biggest foes on grass out of his way this summer, who can stop the 23-time Grand Slam champion?
Let’s dive into each quarter and find some betting value in the futures market.
Note: All odds came from BetMGM. Read here for tips on viewing tennis matches. The full men's draw can be found here.
Wimbledon Preview & Best Bets
Quarter 1: Carlos Alcaraz (-140)
If you're going to back the Spaniard at this tournament, you'd be wise to skip this quarter bet and just go right for the Alcaraz outright. Should he reach the semis here, he should have no issues reaching the final, and in that event you'd assume he has enough form and comfort to compete for the title.
Still, he's ultimately an easy selection to win the first quarter. Alcaraz's title at Queen's Club last week was downright impressive, watching as he took out some very capable grass-courters in Alex de Minaur, Sebastian Korda and Grigor Dimitrov. His other-worldly power from the back of the court should make him an excellent player on this surface in theory, and the question is more of when rather than if. It'll come down to whether or not he's comfortable enough moving around on grass this season; we saw him take some tumbles at Queen's as he has continued to figure things out.
This is a great quarter with just Frances Tiafoe really in his way of a semifinal. I don't trust Holger Rune quite yet on grass.
Quarter 2: Sebastian Korda (+450) | Cameron Norrie (+800)
Surely this quarter goes to the winner of a projected third-round match between Korda and Norrie. The American took out the Brit on his home soil last week at Queen's Club and would be favored to make it two in a row at a venue where he's had plenty of success, but best-of-five tennis can often throw a wrench into things.
Korda has a great set of skills for lawn tennis with some of the most graceful ball-striking in the world coupled with the ability to serve out of trouble and slice the ball effectively. He should already be able to call himself a former Wimbledon quarterfinalist as he was just a hold away from that stage in his debut two years ago, and he's already grown in confidence since then. His run to the semifinals of Queen's Club saw him beat Norrie, Tiafoe and Dan Evans, who are very good players on this surface.
Norrie made the semifinals here a season ago, taking a set off of Djokovic before falling in four sets. His game is also tailored to a grass court with his ridiculously flat backhand and his ability to change levels with his opponents. With Daniil Medvedev way out of whack at the moment, the smart money is on one of these two to come out of the quarter. Don't sleep on the grass-court master himself, Adrian Mannarino, or young American Ben Shelton either.
Quarter 3: Taylor Fritz (+400)
I'm certainly not picking Casper Ruud to come out of this quarter, considering the Norwegian has only ever won one match at Wimbledon and is 4-7 all-time on the surface across all levels. I'm not taking Jannik Sinner either with the Italian going 3-2 on grass in the lead-up to Wimbledon after a second-round exit at Roland Garros.
Who is it, then? There are several interesting names, from former Wimbledon semifinalist Roberto Bautista Agut to the always-compelling Denis Shapovalov. I can't see either of those guys putting together enough consistency to get this done, and that's why I land on Taylor Fritz.
The American draws a difficult first-round opponent in Yannick Hanfmann, who is coming off a deep run in Mallorca, but assuming he comes through that he won't have to really face a good player until the fourth round, where he's either going to draw Sinner or perhaps Evans. You'd favor last year's quarterfinalist to come through that match considering his serve-forehand combo is one of the biggest in the game.
Fritz is the best player in this quarter – at least on a grass court – so getting him at this price is a no-brainer.
Quarter 4: Nick Kyrgios (+1200)
Let's just make one thing clear – Novak Djokovic is winning this quarter. With that said, where's the fun in betting him at -500?
Kyrgios is the only guy who makes any sense here. He is a top-three grass player when healthy, and while he seems far from in form right now he could easily pick up some steam on his favorite surface leaning on his big serve. The good news for the Aussie is that he's in the non-Djokovic half of this quarter, so in theory he's got four matches to play his way into form. The bad news is that he's played just one match all year and would seem to be an unlikely semifinalist.
Still, I think you have to bite on this price just considering had Kyrgios even won one match leading up to Wimbledon he'd be around +700 or shorter to come through the quarter. There's no one here nearly as good as Djokovic and Kyrgios, though I do think this is the week where Felix Auger-Aliassime finally wakes up from his season-long slumber.
Outrights: Djokovic -160 (2u) | Fritz +4000 (0.5u) | Norrie +13000 (0.5u)
I'd love to include Korda here, but it's just hard to say a 22-year old with just one main-level title is going to lift the trophy at the All England Club, especially with Djokovic in the field.
Fritz and Norrie make sense. Again, should Norrie come through his projected third-round match with Korda he should be well-positioned to make a second straight semifinal which makes this price far too long. He'll be playing in front of some very supportive home fans every step of the way, and if his tight battle with Djokovic last year is any indication he can certainly turn some heads in the championships.
On the other hand, the American has been a perennial disappointment at slams, but without Nadal in his way this year I do think he'll make his first Slam semifinal and open up the possibility of a Slam win. In this market, you're really just looking for a player who can reach the final so you can hedge and profit.
Or, you could just pair these two with Djokovic. I don't see anything stopping the Serb from winning yet another Wimbledon with Kyrgios and Matteo Berrettini pretty much out of the way here due to injury. He has more experience on this surface than anyone in the field and if he was able to beat Alcaraz on clay at a Slam, he should have no issues on a surface where he's the best in the world.
I think Djokovic should be around -200 to win this tournament based on the field, so I see plenty of value here.
