The first three days of the ATP Finals have treated us to some phenomenal tennis, both in singles and doubles.
While Thursday's slate includes the two final singles matches that are set to be played in the "red group" round robin stage, they feature implications that will temper the excitement of the day to an extent.
Daniil Medvedev has already assured himself a spot in the semifinals by virtue of his first two wins and the tiebreakers that are in place. The second spot in the semis will go to Alexander Zverev, Matteo Berrettini's replacement, Jannik Sinner or Hubert Hurkacz.
If you back Zverev to fall to Hurkacz and Sinner to beat Medvedev, you could find yourself a very handsome payout. Sinner needs to win his match and Zverev to lose his for the Italian to advance, but that combination of results produces parlay odds of +1200.
Nevertheless, read on for analysis of each matchup and why I don't believe there's much value to be had.
Alexander Zverev (-450) vs. Hubert Hurkacz (+320)
8 a.m. ET
Zverev's path to the semifinals is very simple: If the German wins, he's in, but if he loses, things get a bit more complicated. A win for Hurkacz would allow him to progress to the next stage of the tournament if Medvedev were able to get past Sinner by virtue of the tiebreaker rules. But if Sinner upset the Russian, he would advance.
So what does the first matchup of the evening look like? It projects to be difficult for Hurkacz, but the Polish number one has the game style that can provide some issues for Zverev if he is firing.
Hurkacz has a similar style on the ground to Zverev, preferring extended rallies from the baseline that are dictated on the backhand wing, and the best version of Hurkacz is as tough to crack as they come. He's taken a set off Medvedev in each of his meetings with the world number two, and that was the case for both of his non-clay meetings with Novak Djokovic as well.
The problem for Hurkacz is that Zverev comes into this match in great form. He's showed a high level in his win against Matteo Berrettini and his tight loss to Medvedev, and he's rightfully a significant favorite in the contest.
Options on the moneyline or set and game spreads don't offer much value, as this match is priced very well.
Daniil Medvedev (-280) vs. Jannik Sinner (+215)
3 p.m. ET
There are a number of factors that go into these odds, and it's hard to weigh certain features versus others.
On one level, there is the fundamental stylistic matchup at play. Medvedev would likely be a bigger favorite against Sinner in different circumstances due to his status on hard courts. He's the only player who is currently on a tier with Djokovic on the surface, and Sinner's odds are more reflective of the context of the match.
Medvedev is dealing with a semi-dead heat situation. He's already through to the next stage, but a win isn't meaningless for Medvedev. Due to the sheer amount of points and money that are placed on an undefeated title, working hard against Sinner has its upside.
A win against Sinner itself is worth 200 ranking points and $200,000, and if Medvedev is hypothetically able to convert the win into a title, he'd have the title of undefeated champion. That would bring more than $2 million and 1,500 ranking points to Medvedev.
Because of that, it's hard to ascertain the intensity that Medvedev will bring on Thursday. It's not hard to judge that this match will mean a lot to Sinner, who is looking to spring an upset and make the semifinals despite playing just two matches.
He put on an amazing performance against Hurkacz that saw him drop just four games. A similar showing could get the job done, but at +215 there isn't much value riding with the Italian.
This will be an interesting match to watch unfold, but it's incredibly hard to determine how to bet it.
