Entering Week 3 of the XFL season, we're starting to have a good idea of what each team looks like.
Our betting analysts are backing two things. 1. The Sea Dragons offense gives them an edge on Saturday night. 2. The Orlando Guardians offense is not good.
Check out John LanFranca and Cody Goggin's picks for this weekend in the XFL, with one pick for each day.
Sea Dragons vs. Vipers Odds
Kickoff: Saturday, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ABC
| Sea Dragons Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -115 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +165 |
| Vipers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -105 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -140 |
John LanFranca: Both teams are winless through two weeks, but only one is heading in a direction that could see its season turn around.
Turnovers have plagued Seattle, but there is reason to believe Ben DiNucci may actually be one of the league's better passers. According to Football Outsiders, the Sea Dragons have the most effective offense in the XFL through two weeks. In this game, they'll have the better running game and more stable quarterback situation.
The Vipers have averaged only 3.3 yards per rushing attempt and converted only 5.7% of their rushes for first downs (lowest in the XFL). They have faced the second-most third downs in the league as well. Whether it is Luis Perez or Brett Hundley, it will be entirely on a passing game averaging 5.5 yards per attempt and zero 40+ yard completions.
The Sea Dragons are -3.5 at most sportsbooks. I'd play them all the way to -4, but BetMGM has the best number for them at -3.
Pick: Sea Dragons -3 | Bet to -4
Pick: Sea Dragons -3.5 |
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Guardians vs. Renegades Odds
Kickoff: Sunday, 4 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -110 | 38 -115o / -105u | +340 |
| Renegades Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -110 | 38 -115o / -105u | -425 |
Cody Goggin: The two biggest issues that we see with these spring football leagues is typically a lack of competent offensive lineman and an absence of good quarterback play. Unfortunately for the Orlando Guardians, they've been plagued by both of these.
In Week 1, their offensive line was obliterated by the Houston Roughnecks, posting a Pro Football Focus pass blocking grade of 22. Things didn’t improve much during Week 2 against San Antonio. Now, Orlando enters Week 3 with a 24.7 grade for the season.
In Week 2, the Guardians averaged just 3.1 yards per play and Paxton Lynch was benched for the second time this season. They'll now face the Arlington Renegades, who have the second highest Pro Football Focus defense grade in the league at 81.9. Overcoming an offense this bad isn’t something that can be done overnight it’s likely that this will continue throughout the season.
Luckily for Orlando, Arlington has not had much offensive success either. The Renegades rank seventh in PFF's offensive grade this season out of eight teams and are sixth in points scored this year. Last week, they averaged just 2.3 yards per play against the same Houston team that gave Orlando trouble in week one.
The Guardians have had a solid defense, ranking fourth in PFF defense grade despite allowing the most points in the league by far, largely due to how bad their offense has been. I think that these point totals in Guardians games continue to keep their totals inflated.
At DraftKings the total for this game is still at 38 while it is lower across the rest of the market. I see value in taking the under 38 points in this game between what may be two of the worst offenses in the XFL. I would bet this down to 37 points.
