Now in Week 4 of the XFL season, we're starting to get a better idea of what each team brings to the table.
Our betting analysts are eyeing two Sunday games in Week 4: Renegades vs. Battlehawks and Vipers vs. Defenders — the latter a rematch from earlier in the season.
Check out John LanFranca and Cody Goggin's previews and picks for Sunday in the XFL.
Arlington Renegades vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Kickoff: Sunday, 4 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2, ESPN+
| Renegades Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -110 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | +160 |
| Battlehawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -110 | 36.5 -110o / -110u | -190 |
John LanFranca: There is still reason to believe St. Louis may actually be the best team in the XFL. A.J. McCarron has the best TD to INT ratio in the league and the passing offense has the explosive element needed to create big plays — the Battlehawks are tied for second with nine 20-plus yard passing plays.
I do not like this spot for the Renegades traveling to St. Louis. Arlington's offense could only muster 10 points a week ago against the worst team in the league, and while Kyle Sloter was efficient, his 5.4 yards per attempt were right in line with what Drew Plitt was producing in the first two games of the season.
Nine QBs in the XFL with 18 or more attempts have averaged more yards per pass than has Sloter, and I simply do not believe this offensive is capable of keeping pace with the Battlehawks' high-powered attack.
Pick: Battlehawks -4 (play to -4.5) |
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Cody Goggin: In Week 4 of the XFL season, we will see three rematches from earlier in the year, providing us with a good idea of what may happen this weekend. One of those matchups will be the Renegades traveling to St. Louis to take on the Battlehawks. With most teams in the XFL, home-field advantage is negligible. However, that might not be the case in this game.
In the last iteration of the XFL, we saw how St. Louis fans showed up to The Dome to support their team. When they played their home opener against the Guardians in 2020, that stadium was louder than it had been in years.
This weekend, we will see a very similar environment that could be even crazier. This time, there was such demand for tickets that the upper level of The Dome is being opened up for fans.
Outside of the atmosphere, St. Louis has had the better offense. In the first meeting between these two, the Battlehawks had to rally in the fourth quarter for a 15-9 comeback victory. However, they did average 5.3 yards per play to 4.5 for Arlington, showing that they were superior on offense.
St. Louis ranks third in PFF offensive grade and has the best passing grade at a 77.1. Meanwhile, Arlington is sixth in offensive grade and seventh in passing grade. The Renegades are last in the league by a large margin, averaging just 183 yards per game.
The strength of Arlington’s team is its defense. The Renegades rank second in defensive grade and first in run defense grade. However, St. Louis ranks second in run blocking, which will help them overcome this advantage.
Defense has been the Battlehawks' Achilles’ heel this season. They rank last in defensive grade, but that is due almost entirely to their terrible 47.3 coverage grade. With the lack of a passing attack from Arlington, I’m not as concerned about how this will affect them.
On paper this is a great matchup for St. Louis and they will be playing in front of a loud home crowd (that I will be a part of). I like taking the Battlehawks -3.5 (and would go to -4) as they could roll easily.
Vegas Vipers vs. DC Defenders
Kickoff: Sunday, 7 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN2, ESPN+
| Vipers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | +220 |
| Defenders Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 41.5 -110o / -110u | -270 |
John LanFranca: Despite a completion percentage of 48.4% on the season for Defenders QB Jordan Ta'amu, there is reason for optimism moving forward. His efficient play and dual-threat ability in the win over the Battlehawks a week ago displayed why the team from D.C. is favored at most shops to capture the XFL championship.
The Defenders lead the league in rushing by a landslide, with 449 yards gained on the ground in three games. No other team in the XFL has 300 yards rushing. D.C. leads the league in explosive rushes as well, with 13 gains of 10-plus yards and 30 first-down runs. Their opponent, Vegas, has one-third the number of rushing first downs.
These teams met just a couple weeks ago and the Defenders were able to secure a double-digit victory on the road. I expect more of the same on Sunday night as Ta'amu is playing in rhythm now on an offense that is improving. The Defenders also enjoy the best home-field advantage the XFL has to offer.
Pick: Defenders -6 (play to -6.5) |
