The XFL regular season is in the home stretch as we enter Week 8. Just two weeks remain after this weekend's games before the Divisional Championships.
Our betting analyst, John LanFranca, has his eye on two Saturday games: Vegas Vipers vs. St. Louis Battlehawks and Arlington Renegades vs. Orlando Guardians. The Guardians, notably, are coming off the biggest upset of the season as they toppled the DC Defenders, who were undefeated entering Week 7. LanFranca also has a play on the Houston Roughnecks vs. San Antonio Brahmas on Sunday.
Check out game previews and picks for XFL Week 8 below.
Houston Roughnecks vs. San Antonio Brahmas
Kickoff: Sunday, 3 p.m. ET
TV: ABC, ESPN+
| Roughnecks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | -225 |
| Brahmas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 38.5 -110o / -110u | +190 |
I've learned my lesson backing the Brahmas; I am now looking to fade their putrid offense moving forward.
We are getting a bit of a discount here on a superior Roughnecks roster as they have dropped three straight games. Those three games happened to be against the three best teams in the XFL, thus, I am giving them a pass. Sharp bettors already moved this line a full point from the opener, as the Roughnecks opened as four-point favorites before settling in at the current line of five.
San Antonio has scored just 71 points in six games. Its one outlier was a good offensive performance against an awful Guardians defense back in Week 2. The Brahmas manage only 4.4 yards per pass attempt and haven't surpassed 1,000 passing yards on the season — both marks are last in the XFL. Unsurprisingly, the least explosive passing offense is without a completion of at least 40 yards this season.
In contrast, the Roughnecks lead the league in 40-yard passing plays. Regardless of who plays quarterback for Houston on Sunday, I expect them find success moving the football against an average Brahmas defense.
Pick: Roughnecks -5 | Play to -5.5 (DraftKings) |
Vegas Vipers vs. St. Louis Battlehawks
Kickoff: Saturday, 1 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, ESPN+
| Vipers Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | +260 |
| Battlehawks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -110 | 46 -110o / -110u | -320 |
Led by AJ McCarron, the Battlehawks offense has been the most consistent passing attack in the XFL. Behind McCarron's 17 touchdowns (to only four interceptions), this offense continues to roll, scoring 24-plus points in four of their last five games. Just two weeks ago, St. Louis dropped 29 on the Vipers in Vegas, and I don't see any reasons to expect anything different in that regard.
What I do expect to be different is the offensive output of the Vipers. Quarterback Jalan McClendon gave Vegas' offense a spark it was sorely missing, throwing for 261 yards and two scores in a win over San Antonio last week.
Oddsmakers are having a hard to adjusting lines with all the week-to-week player turnover in the XFL. What seems like a small change in lineup based on what we are used to handicapping in the NFL, makes a much bigger impact in the XFL. The change at QB for both Vegas and Orlando have given bettors many profitable opportunities to end the season.
We will gladly play the over here, as the Vegas defense surrendered 31 points per game in its previous four contests before besting the abysmal Brahmas offense last week. I expect this game to soar over 46 points rather easily.
Pick: Over 46 | Play to 47.5 |
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Arlington Renegades vs. Orlando Guardians
Kickoff: Saturday, 4 p.m. ET
TV: ESPN, ESPN+
| Renegades Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | +100 |
| Guardians Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 42.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
It wasn't long ago when it looked like the Guardians would finish the season without a win.
Coming off the biggest upset of the XFL season, Orlando has found its offensive identity under quarterback Quinten Dormady. Possibly the league's biggest breakout star, Dormady leads the league in completion percentage and yards per attempt out of all signal callers with significant playing time this season. His performance in Orlando's upset victory over the unbeaten Defenders last week was the best yet by a player in the XFL.
In contrast, the Renegades offense is stuck in the mud. They haven't reached 20 points in a game since Week 1, scoring only 15 points once in the previous six games. Arlington's passing game is seventh in the league (out of eight teams) in yards per pass attempt and last in touchdown passes, managing only four the entire season while throwing twice the number of interceptions.
Expect a heavy dose of the Renegades' rushing attack to try and shorten the game. It won't be enough, as their offense is severely outmatched.
Pick: Guardians -1.5 | Play to -2.5 |
