Week 7 of the USFL season kicks off Saturday with two games and then two more on Sunday.
Let's break down our favorite bets for each USFL matchup this weekend!
Ben Hauver and Joey Carrion host The DFS Dose podcast.
USFL Odds & Picks
New Jersey Generals vs. Tampa Bay Bandits
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Ben Hauver: The playoff picture is starting to come into focus with four weeks of regular season action left in the inaugural season of the USFL. This weekend’s first game will be rich with post-season implications as The New Jersey Generals face off with the Tampa Bay Bandits.
The Generals (-4) enter Week 7 in a ‘win and you’re in’ situation. At full health, New Jersey is clearly the better team in this matchup. However, dual-threat quarterback sensation De’Andre Johnson will miss this game, leaving Luiz Perez to command the offense under center.
Perez is no slouch, and luckily for him, The Generals offense is ripe with talent at the skill-positions. Receiver Kavontae Turpin has been a revelation — leading the league in receiving yards with 341. Darius Victor’s production as a rusher without Johnson available may be even more important. Victor leads the league in rushing touchdowns with five and he’s seen the third most attempts of any running back this season (82).
On the other side of the ball, Tampa Bay finds itself looking to keep pace with New Orleans in the standings as both teams try to secure the non-Stallions playoff spot reserved for the South division.
Jordan Ta’amu has been one of the better quarterbacks in the league through six weeks and ranks second in both passing yards (1,167) and touchdowns thrown (9).
Lacking a true offensive star outside of Ta’amu, the veteran signal caller will have to put this team on his back in what is shaping up to be a must-win game. The Generals are the better team, but Tampa Bay should be supremely motivated as a loss would make its ability to make the postseason a nearly insurmountable climb. I suspect that De’Andre Johnson’s absence could be more impactful to The Generals offense than the four-point line would suggest, but I do know there won’t be a ton of points scored.
New Orleans Breakers vs. Michigan Panthers
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Joey Carrion: The New Orleans Breakers take on the Michigan Panthers in this Week 7 matchup between teams headed in different directions.
Michigan is 1-5 on the year, with their only win coming against the lousy Pittsburgh Maulers. This is a team in complete turmoil. They released Shea Patterson this week; the former 1st overall pick of the entire USFL. Yes, you read that correctly.
Even though Patterson has not been good in the USFL, he still did not last as long as Paxton Lynch. Whether the Panthers opt to start Paxton Lynch or Josh Love won't matter. They cannot move the ball on offense and they cannot put points on the board.
Michigan has the second-worst offense in the USFL and is averaging only 17.3 points-per-game. They also have the second-worst passing offense, which could be the reason for Patterson’s release.
Nonetheless, Michigan is going to play its Week 7 matchup with a new starting quarterback. The Panthers are a mediocre team, led by the definition of mediocrity in Jeff Fisher. This is not a team you want to be betting on, period.
New Orleans is 4-2 on the season, with their only two losses coming against the Stallions and Generals, the two best teams in the USFL.
The Breakers offense is led by standout quarterback Kyle Sloter, who is first in passing yards and fourth in passing touchdowns. They average 22.7 points-per-game, which ranks third in the league. They have no problem moving the ball, and they are one of the more reliable offenses in the USFL.
New Orleans also boasts one of the best defenses in the league. They allow a league low 16.5 points-per-game and are third in yards allowed. The Breakers are a team that can win in a variety of ways. They are the most balanced team in the USFL in my opinion and I think the Breakers are USFL Championship contenders.
Against the spread, the Breakers are 4-2 and their only ATS losses were games they also lost on the moneyline. They are facing a Michigan team that just flat out stinks. Michigan can’t score, they have issues at quarterback and they are coached by Jeff Fisher.
I will be once again betting against the Panthers and I think New Orleans wins this game pretty convincingly. The spread (-5.5) is way too low and frankly disrespectful in this spot against Michigan.
Birmingham Stallions vs. Pittsburgh Maulers
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Hauver: It doesn’t get much more lopsided than this.
As indisputable as it is that the undefeated Stallions are the best team in the USFL; The Maulers are the worst.
Imagine the 2021 Buffalo Bills facing off against the infamous 0-16 2008 Detroit Lions. That is the level of imbalance in this matchup.
In last week’s sixth consecutive win, the Stallions were able to overcome the loss of their leading rusher, CJ Marble, with a fantastic performance from the recently signed Bo Scarbrough who managed to put up 105 yards on the ground.
The only question mark Birmingham is currently facing is the decision by coaches for J’Mar Smith and Alex McGough to continue to split reps at quarterback. This would be more of a controversy if the results weren’t repeated success.
As for The Maulers, Vad Lee is the third starting quarterback the team has rolled out this season. There is speculation he could be pulled in favor of lucky number four, Roland Rivers, if the team falls behind early in this game.
Ultimately, it’s hard to imagine the Maulers personnel decisions will make much of an impact here. Pittsburgh has lost three of its six games by 10 or more points and this game profiles as (potentially) the biggest blowout of the season.
Philadelphia Stars vs. Houston Gamblers
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Carrion: The Philadelphia Stars take on the Houston Gamblers in the USFL edition of Sunday Night Football in Week 7.
Philadelphia comes into this matchup with a 3-3 record and is looking to make a push in the playoff race as the USFL regular season comes to a close.
The Stars have one of the best scoring offenses in the USFL, averaging 23.5 points-per-game, which ranks second in the league. While the Stars have not had trouble scoring, they have had trouble stopping teams from scoring. They have allowed 133 points this season, second most in the USFL.
You might be wondering which team has allowed the most points in the USFL? Well, that would be the Houston Gamblers.
Houston has allowed 136 points this season and 375.8 yards-allowed-per-game. Both the Stars and Gamblers are teams that have no trouble scoring points, but also no trouble letting opposing offenses do whatever they want.
Although both offenses are average in terms of yards-per-game, they are two offenses that are forced to operate at a faster pace because their defenses put them in negative game scripts. Both Philadelphia and Houston are 4-2 to the over this year.
This is a prime spot to bet the over as 43.5 is the highest total on the board in Week 7 and rightfully so. This matchup features two teams that score a lot; and can’t play defense.
The over is the strongest bet in this game and Houston +4.5 rates well behind it. Houston is a team that plays close games, but consistently loses them. The
Gamblers have lost their past three games in the final 10 seconds of play. Brutal.
In a seemingly balanced matchup, I give Houston the edge.
