With another 4-1 week, our record on USFL PrizePicks plays is now 8-2 over the two weeks we've published my picks.
Now we turn our attention to Week 5, for which I'm targeting four overs and one under on player props. Let's take a closer look at each.
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Week 5 USFL Picks
Darius Victor Over 30.5 Rush Yards
Breakers vs. Generals, 3 p.m. ET on Saturday
Victor has seen 10+ carries and cleared this number in all four games. He has a very high floor, and with QB De'Andre Johnson (probable) playing at less than 100% health, Victor could see an extra 1-2 touches this week.
I'm projecting him closer to 45.5 rushing yards.
Confidence: 8 out of 10
Jonathan Adams Over 40.5 Rec Yards
Breakers vs. Generals, 3 p.m. ET on Saturday
Adams over 35.5 yards was one of my favorite plays of Week 4, and it easily cashed as he erupted for 101 yards. His market is still under 50.5 yards this week, so the "buy-low" window is still open for him.
He's arguably the best WR in the USFL and has caught only 46.4% of his targets this season. I'm projecting him for closer to 50.5 receiving yards.
Confidence: 6 out of 10
Paul Terry Over 23.5 Rush Yards
Stallions vs. Stars, 12 p.m. ET on Sunday
It's a bit of a mystery if Darnell Holland will be able to return this week (getting up-to-date USFL news has proven to be very difficult), but I like locking in the over for Terry here.
Here is how I will project Terry based on Holland's status:
- Terry with Holland active: 28.5 rush yards
- Terry with Holland out: 40.5 rush yards
In the worst-case scenario, I would still show some value on the over, while the best-case scenario for Terry would offer 17 yards of value. I love the floor/ceiling upside in locking this in at 23.5.
Confidence: 7 out of 10
Devin Gray Under 40.5 Rec Yards
Stallions vs. Stars, 12 p.m. ET on Sunday
Gray's under is my favorite play of the week as it's the perfect sell-high situation after he posted seven receptions for 70 yards and a touchdown last week. Case Cookus stepped up in his first start for the injured Bryan Scott, but has a very tough test this week against a Birmingham defensive line that is no joke.
This season, Gray has caught 75% of his targets, which is significantly higher than the league average of about 54%. However, he's due to regress in that metric going forward, and the Stars may rotate in WRs Chris Rowland and Maurice Alexander more going forward (at Gray's expense).
As a result, there are a lot of downward forces pulling down Gray's projection this week, which I have closer to 28.5 yards.
Confidence: 9 out of 10
Garrett Groshek Over 37.5 Rush Yards
Maulers vs. Gamblers, 4 p.m. ET on Sunday
Taking the over on Groshek reminds me of attacking the over on Rex Burkhead's props at the end of the 2021 NFL season, when he took over as the workhorse back for the Texans.
This is strictly a bet on bankable volume. The Maulers are the only remaining winless team in the USFL and have lost by 7+ in every game. That could change this week, as they are "only" 5.5-point underdogs against a weak Gamblers team.
Groshek is likely going to have the most favorable game script to date, so I like the idea of taking his over here. Projecting this closer to 46.5 yards.
Confidence: 8 out of 10
