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Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, leverages his player projections to identify the USFL props with the biggest edges on PrizePicks for Week 3.
He's included his confidence level in each of the five picks, four of which earned at least a seven out of 10. They're outlined accordingly below.
Now let's dive into his analysis!
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USFL Props
Jordan Ellis Over 50.5 Rush Yards
8 p.m. ET on Saturday
The New Orleans Breakers running back could be in line for a massive workload if backup T.J. Logan is ruled out due to a foot injury. Considering Logan missed Wednesday's practice, chances of him suiting up seem low. And even if he does play, he could be limited.
Ellis has crushed this line in the first two games with 89 then 64 rushing yards. I'm projecting him for 72.5 rushing yards this Saturday, which will only rise if Logan is ruled out!
Confidence: 10 out of 10
De'Andre Johnson Over 30.5 Rush Yards
8 p.m. ET on Sunday
The New Jersey Generals quarterback remains in a timeshare with Luis Perez, but after last week's performance in their 10-6 win, I wouldn't be surprised if Johnson sees an increase in snaps under center this week. His designed runs and scramble rates would make Jalen Hurts or Lamar Jackson jealous.
We are getting an excellent buy-low opportunity after he rushed for "only" 27 yards last week. I'm projecting him closer to 44 for Week 3.
Confidence: 8 out of 10
Marcus Baugh Under 25.5 Rec Yards
2:30 p.m. ET on Sunday
The Michigan Panthers were pretty thin at WR last week with Joe Walker and Jeff Badet missing due to injury. It forced them to run 2-TE sets at a much higher rate, which helped lead to Baugh's three catches for 38 scoreless yards. With Walker and Badet set to return this week, I expect Baugh's routes run rate to drop and continue to be in a strict timeshare with La'Michael Pettway.
I'm projecting this closer to 19.
Confidence: 8 out of 10
BJ Emmons Over 43.5 Rush Yards
4 p.m. ET on Saturday
In their blowout 34-3 loss to the Breakers last week, the Tampa Bay Bandits had to abandon the run, which led to Emmons seeing only 14 carries for 39 yards. I expect them to lean on Emmons heavily against the Houston Gamblers' pretty weak run D this week.
I'm projecting this closer to 58.
Confidence: 7 out of 10
Clayton Thorson Over 125.5 Pass Yards
4 p.m. ET on Saturday
The Houston Gamblers quarterback has looked terrible in his first two games, however, much of the blame can be placed on his offensive line for allowing him to be under constant duress.
Backup QB Kenji Bahar has looked worse than Thorson and is questionable with a hand injury. Thorson is one of the few QBs we can project to take about 100% of the snaps this week, meaning this line is just a tad low. I'm projecting it closer to 144.
Confidence: 4 out of 10
