I went 4-1 on my five-pick PrizePicks Flex play for Week 3.
While none of the four wins were even close, there was an unlucky chain of events that led to the one loss of B.J. Emmons finishing (barely) under his prop:
- He seemly lost his job to Juwan Washington (who had the hot hand).
- He appeared to get banged up in-game.
- The Bandits trailed by 7+ points for much of the game, which led them into a more pass-heavy offense.
After all of that, he needed only 1-2 more carries to clear his prop! Oh, what could have been.
Ok, rant over. On to Week 4!
Before we run through the plays, though, we should note the USFL made a significant rule change this week: The league will continue to run the clock after incomplete passes in the first and third quarters to speed up games. According to my estimates, that will result in about six fewer plays per game for each team, so I am factoring this into my projections.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in 30+ states! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more together.
USFL Props
Stars WR Jordan Suell Under 45.5 Rec Yards
10 p.m. ET on Friday
There are a couple factors going against Suell on Friday night.
First, starting QB Bryce Scott has been ruled out, which means backup Case Cookus will take his place. Plus, this matchup will feature the debut of the USFL's new rule in keeping the clock running after incomplete passes (in the first and third quarters). As a result, I'm expecting the overall passing volume for the Stars to be down.
Suell has played nearly every snap and has benefited from wide receivers Chris Rowland, Devin Gray and Maurice Alexander being in/out of the lineup due to injury. Suell would have to see a significant increase in target share to clear this number.
I'm projecting him for closer to 35.5 receiving yards in Week 4.
Confidence: 8 out of 10
Bandits WR John Franklin III Under 30.5 Rec Yards
7 p.m. ET on Saturday
Tampa Bay runs a heavy 5-6 man rotation at WR, making it challenging to project any one receiver to see a significant target share. Franklin has seen the most playing time over the past two games, but has turned that into only 19 and 23 yards.
Between his playing time already being maxed and the new clock rules, I have a hard time seeing him suddenly clearing this number on Saturday.
Confidence: 8 out of 10
Breakers WR Jonathan Adams Over 35.5 Rec Yards
3 p.m. ET on Sunday
Adams has been able to clear this number only once this season, which is odd considering he's arguably the best WR in the league. He's due for some positive regression in his 18% targets per route run and 37% catch rate.
This is the perfect buy-low opportunity on Adams. I would set this line closer to 48.5 yards.
Confidence: 8 out of 10
Panthers RB Reggie Corbin Over 40.5 Rush Yards
10 p.m. ET on Friday
Corbin came out of nowhere in Week 3 to rush 20 times for 133 yards. I imagine Jeff Fisher rides the hot hand and gives Corbin around 13 carries this week, which should be enough for him to clear this number.
It's worth noting that with the new clock rules, I'm projecting it will take away about one carry from Corbin's projected workload. All told, I'm projecting Corbin closer to 57.5 yards.
Confidence: 6 out of 10
Gamblers RB Mark Thompson Over 65.5 Rush Yards
3 p.m. ET on Sunday
Thompson is essentially the Jonathan Taylor of the USFL. Thompson has cleared this number in all three games and ran for 147 yards last week, which is the most in a game this season.
I don't see him slowing down here and would set this closer to 78.5 yards.
Confidence: 5 out of 10
