Aces vs. Liberty Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -118 | 174.5 -108o / -112u | -105 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -104 | 174.5 -108o / -112u | -115 |
The Las Vegas Aces and New York Liberty add the final regular season chapter to their rivalry on Monday night at the Barclays Center. The two teams have already met four times this season, once in the Commissioner's Cup final, and they seemed to be on parallel tracks to a potential clash in the WNBA Finals in about six weeks.
The two teams are 2-2 against each other this season, but there have been some noticeable patterns to arise in those four games. The two teams are also trending slightly different directions in the second half of the season, so we will add that all together and come up with a betting card for viewers of what should be another excellent entry into this budding rivalry.
Las Vegas Aces
The Aces looked absolutely infallible to start the season, storming out of the gates and sustaining their dominance as part of a 24-2 record.
It is only in comparison that their last month has looked like a bit of a slip-up. Since August 2, the Aces are 6-3 (not counting the loss in the Commissioner's Cup Final), with a quite pedestrian +4.7. However, that is a rather arbitrary cut-off point to most highlight the drop. Instead, let's go with a far less arbitrary cut-off point: Since Candace Parker's injury on July 7.
During this stretch, the Aces are now 14-3 with a +12.9 net rating — still an elite team, just not the historic juggernauts they were when they started the season 16-2 with a +17.6 net rating with Parker around.
However, for the purposes of this game, one thing to note is that even during that historic run to start the season, their net rating on the road was "just" +9.8. I put just in quotes because that figure was still best in the league, but it was notably lower than their +23.8 net rating at home.
In the past six weeks, that trend has held, with the Aces +19.2 at home and +8.5 on the road. Of their five losses, four have been on the road, including their biggest loss of the season, that 38-point L to the Liberty last time they went to Barclays.
Speaking of these past matchups, one of the most noticeable trends has been the struggles of A'ja Wilson. The two-time MVP is averaging 13.8 points, 5.8 rebounds and 1.5 assists on 37 percent shooting in these four 2023 matchups with the Liberty. Compare that to her season-long stats of 21.9 points, 9.5 rebounds, and 1.7 assists on 53.8 percent shooting, and it's clear that the Liberty have some answers for arguably the best player in the league.
New York Liberty
If the Aces have been trending slightly down in the past six weeks, it's been the opposite for the Liberty, who seems to have finally reached that point in the season we all imagined when this super team would finally click.
Since that same July 7 cutoff, the Liberty are 15-3 with a +11.4 net rating — basically matching the Aces. And if we just looked at the past 10 games, there's no doubt who the best team in the WNBA has been, with the Liberty 9-1 with a net rating of +17.5 compared to 7-3 with a +6.5 net rating for the Aces.
The breakthrough that has continued to hold through during this stretch has been an offense that is taking more threes than any team in WNBA history and committing fewer turnovers, and with 111 points in their most recent game, those trends are clearly holding.
Another trend that has held has been Jonquel Jones' success against the Aces. She has been the inverse of Wilson in these games (and led to an MVP performance in the Commissioner's Cup Final), averaging 12.3 points, 10.8 rebounds, and 2.3 assists per game on 54.3 percent shooting — all higher than her season averages.
Her defense on Wilson has also been key, which should guarantee her minutes, which is important for her player props since head coach Sandy Brondello can sometimes have strange games where Jones gets only 20 minutes of playing time and kills her betting props.
Aces vs. Liberty
Betting Pick & Prediction
When weighing both the season as a whole, alongside the most recent run of play, it's hard for me to get to a spot where the Aces should be favored in New York, despite the fact: A) The Liberty have actually been slightly better on the road this season, and B) It's one of those "half" home games where the Liberty are coming off a long road trip and this is their first game back in Brooklyn.
Even considering those factors, I have the Liberty favored by 2.5, and would set the moneyline at Liberty -135, so I have value on the Liberty both ways with the market as is right now.
I am also going back to the well on Wilson and Jones. The books have sniffed out a bit of these trends, putting Wilson's points prop two points lower (19.5) than her season's average, so I like targeting the rebounding market for both players. The books have 9.5 as the line for each player.
Wilson hasn't collected more than eight boards in any of these four matchups this season, while Jones is averaging 10.8 boards in these games and has cleared it twice. Of the two, I like the Wilson under better.
Pick: Liberty spread and moneyline | A'ja Wilson under 9.5 rebounds | Jonquel Jones over 9.5 rebounds
