Barring any unexpected late-season slides, the Las Vegas Aces and Phoenix Mercury should both be in the postseason.
However, a few weeks remain in the regular season and those weeks will determine seeding.
Which team will come out on top on Sunday? Can A’ja Wilson and the Aces get hot at the right time and give themselves a chance at the rare three-peat?
Take a look at my Aces vs. Mercury prediction to find out!
Aces vs. Mercury Odds, Prediction
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -106 | 168.5 -110o / -110u | -194 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -114 | 168.5 -110o / -110u | +156 |
Las Vegas Aces Betting Preview
After back-to-back wins in the WNBA Finals, the Las Vegas Aces have been relatively disappointing this season. They boast a 19-12 record and are second in the Western Conference and fourth overall in the WNBA.
Las Vegas has been disappointing not only in its overall play, but also in its ability, or lack thereof, to cover the spread. It is tied with Dallas for the lowest spread record, covering in only 11 of its 31 games.
The Aces’ underwhelming season came to a head on Tuesday when they lost to the Dallas Wings, a team that exerts virtually no effort on the defensive end of the floor.
Wilson and company bounced back with a double-digit win at home over the Dream, but can they carry that momentum into this game and, eventually, the postseason?
Phoenix Mercury Betting Preview
The Mercury are a much-improved and healthier team after winning just nine games in 2023, and much of the former is due to the arrival of Kahleah Copper.
Copper leads the team in scoring, averaging more than 22 points per game on better than 44% shooting from the field.
However, one thing that hasn't changed about the Mercury is their porous defense. Phoenix ranks ninth in defensive rating and allows the most 3-point attempts to opponents per game this season.
Unfortunately for Phoenix, the Aces shoot the most 3s at the third-highest percentage in the W.
Aces vs Mercury Pick
Even though the Aces have been atrocious at covering the spread, this is a solid spot to back them due to their elite 3-point shooting and Phoenix’s abysmal perimeter defense.
Las Vegas is the top-scoring team (first in points per game) in the W, while Phoenix has one of the worst defensive units (ninth in defensive rating). The Aces also like to play uptempo, ranking first in pace, which could be a problem for a team like Phoenix that doesn't want to play fast.
Further, the Mercury are 1-2 against Las Vegas this season, and in their sole win, they hit 16 3-pointers, an outlier for Phoenix. Don't expect that to happen again.
We will ride with the Aces to cover on the road as long as Jackie Young is set to take the court. She's listed as day-to-day, so keep an eye on her availability.
Pick: Aces -3.5 (-110, BetMGM)
