Win, and you're into the playoffs. That's what the Atlanta Dream faced heading into Thursday's season finale on the road against the New York Liberty.
Atlanta had everything to play for, while the Liberty, which had already locked up the No. 1 seed, was primarily hoping to come away from the game without any injuries.
Thus, there wasn't much incentive for New York to play its starters other than to give them a chance to maintain their rhythm. Jonquel Jones was the only Liberty starter to play 30 minutes, while the rest of the rotation played no more than 25.
Atlanta not only won the game (78-67), but it also outscored New York in each of the first three quarters.
After clinching homecourt advantage, New York would always limit its starters' minutes, no matter who it faced in the final regular season game. Atlanta's victory will now set up a first-round matchup between the two teams in the playoffs.
New York did win the regular season series by a 3-1 margin, and it's as high as -2500 favorite at FanDuel to advance to the next round. But if you had to make a wager before the start of the s
If this is a series that you feel compelled to get involved with pre-flop, your best option would be to back the Liberty on a 2-0 series exacta at -390.
New York's Efficiency Will Be The Difference vs. Atlanta
There's not much value in incorporating the season finale into our analysis of these two teams. Had New York needed a result in the game, I'm relatively confident it would've been able to win and win comfortably.
In the first two meetings, New York covered the spread by an average of 10.5 points.
The third game was a bit of a tricky spot, with New York coming off an extended rest following its 94-89 loss to Minnesota in the Commissioner's Cup Championship.
New York looked sluggish in that game, scoring just 13 first-quarter points against Atlanta before rallying from a 16-point deficit to win 81-75.
These teams are miles apart on paper, particularly when considering the quality of their shot selection. According to the WNBA.com's Advanced Stats, Atlanta's Effective Field Goal Percentage (eFG%) of 45.2% is the worst in the league.
It also plays at the second-slowest tempo (78.96 possessions per 40 minutes), which limits its opportunities to scoop up easy baskets in transition.
While New York ranks in the bottom half of the league in tempo, it sits third in eFG% at 52.1%.
The Bet to Consider: A Longshot to Lead the Series in Scoring
With 2024 being arguably the most-watched season in league history, thanks to a talented rookie class headlined by Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, WNBA fans deserve much more from the sportsbooks regarding their offerings for these playoffs.
Given that New York is such a heavy favorite, it would be nice to consider other betting options, such as which player would lead the series in scoring.
While it's unclear if the books would up those lines, one player bettors should keep a close eye on is Atlanta's Alisha Gray.
Gray finished second on the Dream in scoring (15.6 PPG) and perimeter shooting at 34.2%. Let's not forget that she also won the 2024 Starry 3-Point Contest.
Atlanta averages six 3-pointers per game compared to New York, which averages a league-high 10.1.
If Atlanta faces a significant deficit in either game, Gray's 3-point prowess could be very helpful.
