The WNBA futures markets are starting to trickle out now that the free agency frenzy has fizzled.
There were a ton of big names that changed teams this off-season as numerous teams made it known that they want to step up and compete — or remain at the top of the league. For a while, we only had WNBA title odds, which were hard to bet into with 5 of the 12 teams announcing intentions to contend.
That's why I got so excited to see new markets emerge on Monday, February 17th at FanDuel. Instantly, I started attacking the WNBA Stat Leaders market, and one of them stuck out to me like a sore thumb. Here is a no-brainer best bet worth placing now, and best of all, we get to back second-year sensation Caitlin Clark.
Caitlin Clark WNBA Regular Season Assists Leader (-210)
Normally, I'd say its utterly ridiculous to bet a -210 future prior to the season. However, there are rare exceptions, and this is one of them. The line actually opened at -175 and is the first number to have moved since these stat leader markets opened. I don't think it has moved far enough and predict it'll be -250ish when the season actually tips off.
Clark led this stat category last season, averaging 8.4 assists per game.
Alyssa Thomas finished second at 7.9, a full 0.5 assists per game behind. Clark not only had an early rookie adjustment window before she hit cruise control around the mid-season mark, she also had teammates that were less apt to play the up-tempo style of basketball she demands from her teammates.
This offseason, the Fever re-signed their other elite shooter (Kelsey Mitchell) and brought in DeWanna Bonner and Sophie Cunningham, who are also 3-point snipers. Clark is expected to command the highest usage rate on the leagues fastest offense, while having an elite pick-and-roll partner in Aliyah Boston and being flanked by a trio of shooters. Clark's assist opportunities are going to level up this year — and I expect other top candidates in the field to dip.
Thomas is the second on the list at +310. She just moved from the Sun to the Mercury and will have to adjust to new teammates, a new system and two other great ball handlers on her team. One of whom is Kahleah Copper, who dominates in isolation sets and creates for herself. The other is Diana Taurasi (she has not announced any retirement yet), a possible WNBA GOAT, who still plays such intelligent basketball. I expect Thomas to dip from 7.9 assists per game.
Next on the list is Natasha Cloud, but all the way down to +1900. She has a 5% implied probability to win this, thats how steep the drop is after Clark and Thomas. Cloud also switched teams and joined the Connecticut Sun, who — after a very competitive season — fired their coach and lost their two best players. I don't expect the Sun to compete the same way, and thus I don't expect Cloud to be running a dominant offense. The Sun also brought in Marina Mabrey last season and thrived with her as the point guard. If they continue that tactic, we will see even less initiating from Cloud.
This Clark assists line reminds me of the Stephen Curry most 3-pointers market, which always hovered around -150 preseason, until the market realized it should actually be closer to -350/-400. This Clark line will be close to -400 starting next season, so despite a 68% implied probability, I think this clearly has value and will be a steeper number before the WNBA season tips off.
For reference, this bet is based off player averages and requires 28 games played to qualify. The risk of a Clark injury truly feels like the biggest risk in making this bet.
