It's hard to say the Las Vegas Aces absolutely need to win Game 4 of the WNBA Finals — as they hold a 2-1 lead and a deciding Game 5 on their home court if they were to lose — but it certainly feels that way.
Chelsea Gray (foot) is out, and while the counting stats won't completely reflect it, she felt like the MVP of the Finals up until she limped off the floor in the fourth quarter of Game 3.
Starting center Kiah Stokes is also missing Game 4 with a foot ailment.
Gray is done for the series, and for a top-heavy team like the Aces — who have leaned on Gray, A'ja Wilson, Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young as a foursome — it dents the two-way spirit of their team. Gray has been the tone-setter from the opening tip of Game 1.
Losing Game 4 in Brooklyn would only bolster the confidence of the New York Liberty, who are trying desperately to become the first team to force a Game 5 after being down 2-0 in WNBA Finals history, and of course, the first to outright win after facing such a deficit.
It's why the Aces can't afford to play with their food, so to speak, but that's easier said than done in Gray's absence.
Adjustments Needed for Game 4
Two major things stood out to me in Game 3 pertaining to the Aces, in particular.
First, the Aces' shooting crashed back down to earth, as some expected.
Simply put, their field goal, 3-point and free throw shooting percentages by the game are as follows:
- Game 1: 55/41/87
- Game 2: 53/45/100
- Game 3: 33/32/87
Moreover, their true shooting percentage has fluctuated from 66.8% in Game 1, up to 67.1% in Game 2 and down to 46.1% in Game 3. Similarly, their effective field goal percentage has taken a hit, going from 61.7% to 62.1% and down to 38.4%.
The Liberty adjusted from allowing damning openings and looks in Games 1 and 2, but the Aces still missed quality shots they had been hitting in their previous two efforts.
Plum exploded for 29 points on 10-of-22 shooting with 5-of-10 makes from 3. She was the only Aces starter who had a true shooting percentage of over 42.7% and an offensive rating of at least 90.
Without Gray, those looks will be harder to come by, which means the playmaking responsibility may fall more on Plum's shoulders. As capable as she is, it also makes her more of a defensive focus, which opens the door for an X-factor to relieve some of the burden.
X-Factor for the Aces
And that X-factor, of course, has to be Alysha Clark, the 2023 Sixth Player of the Year and a two-time WNBA champion.
Clark has been really the only Aces bench player of consequence — the only one averaging more than seven minutes per game — and the one who'll likely slide into the closing lineup — if not the starting one as well — in Gray's absence.
Clark has logged 22.5 minutes per game in the playoffs — the exact same as she did in the regular season — and has statically been better in the postseason.
In the regular season, she averaged 6.7 points and 3.4 rebounds on 44/39/82 shooting, which is up to 8.0 points and 4.0 rebounds on 52/33/92.
I really think Wilson, Plum and Young may not sit the rest of the series, even with relative foul trouble. Whether or not Clark is slotted in for Gray — as she did for Plum in one regular season game — or if she remains in her sixth player role, we should anticipate her minutes to hit well into the 30s.
And, for what it's worth, the only other instance this year where Wilson, Plum, Gray or Young missed a game, Clark started. Plum was out during a game against the Dallas Wings on July 5, in which the Aces won, 89-82.
Clark started and logged 35 minutes, though, Candace Parker was the starting center then. Stokes and Kierstan Bell came off the bench and logged 18 and 13 minutes, respectively.
Will Clark replicate Gray's production? No, she's a completely different player, but she'll add defensive versatility, floor spacing for everyone else and some rebounding. Clark was a starter and closer for both Seattle Storm titles in 2018 and 2020 after all, and betting on a trustworthy player is typically one you'll make this time of year.
Actionable Bets for Game 4
Let's look at some bets for Game 4 that I'll be eyeing as we continue trying to navigate this difficult-to-project series.
- If you like the Liberty, take them to cover. If you like the Aces, take them on the moneyline. These two have not had a game decided by fewer than nine points in eight contests — and that's the only one that didn't end by double digits. As of now, the Liberty are -4 after being -2.5, a number that should grow in Gray's absence. I personally think the Liberty should take Game 4, which would bring them to 4-0 against the Aces in Brooklyn.
- Right now, the Liberty are +250 to win by 11 or more points on FanDuel. Team-wise, it's probably my favorite bet for the game. I'll have a separate story out on player props.
