A few weeks ago, the Chicago Sky looked like a lock to make the WNBA postseason. Unfortunately, a six-game losing streak has allowed the Atlanta Dream to pull level in the race for the eighth and final playoff spot.
Things won't get any easier for Chicago as it heads to the desert to take on the reigning champions, Las Vegas Aces.
The Aces are coming off a dominant 97-79 road win over the Phoenix Mercury, led by A'ja Wilson's 41 points and 17 rebounds. But while Las Vegas is as high as a 12.5-point favorite against Chicago, it's still prudent to exercise caution when laying that many points in this league.
Chicago Sky vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction
Although the Sky and Aces might look worlds apart on paper and in the standings, Chicago's ability to rebound and guard the perimeter can help narrow the gap between these two teams. Yet Las Vegas is a heavy double-digit home favorite against Chicago, and this is one of those spots where it makes sense to take the points with the visitors.
Sky vs. Aces Pick: Sky +12.5 or better (-106 at FanDuel)
Sky vs. Aces Odds
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -106 | 165.5 -108o / -112u | +570 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -114 | 165.5 -108o / -112u | -900 |
Chicago Sky: Coping Without Carter
Chicago has played slightly better than its losing streak would suggest, as it has covered the spread in three of the six games. It has also had to play the last three games without its leading scorer, Chennedy Carter.
The Texas A&M product averages 17.2 points per game, and the team's second-leading scorer, Marina Mabrey (14.0 points), isn't even on the roster anymore following her trade to Connecticut.
Carter recently landed on the league's COVID-19 protocols list but was upgraded to questionable for Tuesday's game. She scored a season-high 34 points against the Aces in July.
I was particularly impressed with the Sky's effort in its last outing without Carter, a 79-74 loss against a quality Minnesota team. Chicago dominated the glass 38-24, which helped mask some of the team's offensive inefficiencies.
That storyline has been a common theme this season, even in the Sky's three games against the Aces, with Chicago winning the rebounding battle in each of them.
Las Vegas Aces: Defensive Struggles This Season
Las Vegas already has twice as many losses (12) this season as last, and there are still eight games remaining in the campaign. The overall dominance hasn't been there, as the Aces have just the fifth-best Net Rating (+5.2) after posting a +15.3 mark in the previous year.
But while the Aces' offense is still very respectable, ranking second in efficiency (106.2 Rating), it's been on the defensive end where they've struggled the most. Although Las Vegas has the fourth-best record (20-12), it ranks sixth (101.0) in defense and is sandwiched between Atlanta (100.6) and Chicago (101.8)—two teams that are 10 games under .500 at 11-21.
One area where Chicago probably deserves more credit is its ability to defend the 3-point line. The Sky rank fifth in opponent 3-pointers allowed (7.2 per game) and fourth in opponent 3-point percentage (32.6%).
The Sky's perimeter defense against Las Vegas has been even better than their season averages, as Chicago limited the Aces to just 6.6 3-pointers per game in three meetings and 29.8% shooting from long range.
It's worth noting that the Aces rank fourth in 3-point field goals with 9.2 per game, making winning by greater margins even more difficult when you don't have elite 3-point shooting to create separation.
Sky vs. Aces: Double-Digit 'Dogs a Profitable Angle
Betting Pick & Prediction
Chicago has been a bit of a bugaboo for Las Vegas despite the Aces holding a 2-1 edge in the season series. One of those victories came on a game-winning layup by Wilson at the buzzer to beat the Sky 77-75 when the two teams last met in late August.
That loss should still be reasonably fresh on the minds of the Sky players, considering it happened on their home court.
Forget about the names on the front and the back of the jerseys. The Aces are an opponent that Chicago can perform well against because of its rebounding and perimeter defense.
You always want to be careful laying double-digits in this league, and this season is no different. According to our Action Labs database, favorites are just 13-33 against the spread in this spot, with Las Vegas 4-11.
If we include all other seasons in the database, double-digit favorites are 242-315-13 (43.4%).
Thus, backing the underdog with the points is one of the most profitable angles in this league, and this Chicago team has enough strength in the right areas to frustrate the Aces and keep this game within single digits.
