Sky vs. Dream Odds
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 159.5 -110o/-110u | -107 |
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 159.5 -110o/-110u | -112 |
A game featuring two teams that struggle to score means we get a total in the 150s. The spread gives a slight edge to the home team here, but these are the bottom two teams overall when it comes to covering, with Chicago 6-10 ATS and Atlanta 5-10 ATS. The Dream already beat the Sky 89-80 on June 8th, and now they get to try to do it again at home.
Chicago Sky
Chicago is tenth in offensive rating, but they are also fourth overall in pace. In fact, they are third in the league in possessions per 40 minutes, which could lend itself to an over in this game.
Angel Reese is averaging a double double, and most recently set the single-season league record with 10 consecutive double doubles. She now sits around +400 for the Rookie of the Year award, behind only Caitlin Clark.
Unfortunately, the Sky often suffer from inconsistent performances from their guards. For instance, their scoring leader, Marina Mabrey, has been trudging through a scoring slump, going 6 of 27 from deep in her last three games. In the last Dream matchup, she scored just 12 points and hasn’t scored more than 14 points in her last six games vs Atlanta. I’ll take her to go under her points rebounds set at 18.5 (Fanduel.)
Chennedy Carter has been a solid producer for the Sky this season, averaging nearly 15 points per game, and sitting at 13th in the league in field goals made per game. In fact, she’s scored in double digits every game but two this season. Both times she was held to just four points, and one of those times it was vs the Dream (the team that drafted her in 2020).
In case you missed it, in 2021, Carter was suspended by the Dream for “conduct detrimental to the team” before being traded to the Los Angeles Sparks for the 2022 season. In 2022, the Sparks also went on to bench Carter for “poor conduct” and released her in the offseason. Since then, Carter has played Atlanta three times, scoring a total of 11 points combined. Granted she only played 15 minutes last time vs the Dream (half of her usual usage), but it seemed to be a result of her attitude yet again, which Sky Head Coach Teresa Weatherspoon has done her best to manage. If Carter continues to be haunted by the Dream, I think she goes under 16.5 points yet again. She has gone under this number in 11 of 17 games played this season.
Atlanta Dream
Atlanta ranks dead last in points per game, and offensive rating, while sitting at second to last in pace. However, there is a category where they reign supreme. The Dream score the most points from free throws in the league, which bodes well for them against a Chicago team that loves to send teams to the line. Last time, veteran Tina Charles gave Angel Reese and Camilla Cardoso plenty to worry about down low, and I expect we see a very physical game from both sides again.
Overall, this matchup seems to favor Atlanta. Chicago loves fast break points and ranks 4th in point scored off turnovers, but Atlanta ranks second overall in turnover percentage. The Dream also allow the third fewest second chance points, and second fewest fast break points.
However, this time around Atlanta will be without Rhyne Howard, who has been dealing with an ankle injury for the past 10 days. So far, Allisha Gray has been more than capable of holding down the perimeter in her absence.
Sky vs. Dream
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Dream have won the last five games vs the Sky and covered every time. Admittedly, Atlanta can be a frustrating team to back. This is the same team that can beat the Aces and the Sun and then lose to the Mystics. Still, they were able to stay within six points of the Liberty in their last game and even without Howard, they should have the skill sets needed to beat the Sky again.
