Sky vs Fever: WNBA Odds, Expert Picks (Sunday, June 16)

The Fever will try to win back-to-back games for the first time this season when they host the Chicago Sky on Sunday afternoon. Indiana is 0-3 after a win and is coming off a 91-84 home victory over Atlanta.

While some lopsided Fever losses contributed to a league-worst Net Rating of -13.9,  the gap between these teams is likely closer than the 12-point margin, which favors Chicago. After all, both teams have the same number of wins (four) despite Indiana playing two more games.

Indiana opened as a 1.5-point favorite, and some sportsbooks have adjusted the odds up to -2.

Although I agree with the move, the best option in this matchup might be to pass on the point spread altogether and back the Fever on the moneyline. Let's get to our Sky vs. Fever pick.

Chicago got off to a fast start, winning two of three games to start the season. Unfortunately, it only has two wins in its last nine games.

While the Sky remain one of the better defensive teams in the league, ranking in the top half, they're currently ninth in Offensive Rating with 96.7 points per 1oo possessions.

Their last two wins came against teams ranked 10th or worse in offensive efficiency.

There's little room for error with this Sky team, which often finds itself at a disadvantage because of a lack of perimeter shooting. Chicago is not only at the bottom of the league in 3-point attempts (14.6 per game) but also dead last in 3-point field goals (4.4 per game). In this modern age of basketball, it's almost inconceivable to expect to win games if you're not a threat from beyond the perimeter.

Thus, Chicago almost has to play a perfect game by dominating the glass and limiting turnovers to have a chance to be competitive. Those odds are often less than 50%, meaning if you can get reasonable moneyline odds to fade the Sky, it probably deserves some strong consideration.

The difference between Chicago and Indiana is the Fever are a more fluid offensive team.

Although Indiana's Offensive Rating (97.2) is only slightly better than Chicago's, its style of play is much more amenable to the modern game. Indiana ranks sixth in 3-point attempts (25.1 per game) and 3-point field goals (8.4 per game). As a result, the Fever have a greater margin for error because they can use their 3-point shooting to climb back into games when facing a deficit.

With Caitlin Clark's ascension as the new face of the WNBA, Indiana has had to deal with a brutal schedule to start the season. Eight of its 10 losses came against Connecticut, New York and Seattle, three of the top four teams in the league.

Therefore, the metrics for the Fever are somewhat skewed, given the level of competition they've faced. Indiana might have the worst Net Rating in the league, but it certainly isn't the worst team.

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One thing we have to consider for this game is the absence of Sky center Elizabeth Williams, who tore her meniscus June 6 against the Mystics, the last time Chicago won a game. The 10-year veteran averaged 10 points and seven rebounds per game prior to the injury. She was also a key part of Chicago's defense, with 1.7 blocks and 1.7 steals per game.

Without Willams, the Sky have to turn to rookie center Kamilla Cardoso, who is averaging 8.2 points and 5.7 rebounds per game. Defensively, Cardoso is averaging fewer blocks (0.7) and steals (0) than Williams. Thus, Williams' loss impacts Chicago on both sides of the ball, and it's largely gone unmentioned.

The Fever have already had to endure a brutal stretch of games, and now it's the Sky's turn to do the same.

Indiana is a better team than the numbers show, and I think it can do enough to eke out a win against Chicago on Sunday.

Pick: Fever ML (-120 at BetMGM)