Even after a disastrous 2-8 stretch, the Chicago Sky (13-23) are still in the lead for the eighth and final spot in the WNBA playoffs. But now, that lead is down to just one game, with Atlanta and Washington in hot pursuit. The Mystics have played the best out of the three teams during these last 10 games, thanks to a 6-4 mark.
Two of their victories came against Chicago, including Wednesday's 89-58 thrashing on the road. The Sky are already without its second-leading scorer, Angel Reese, whose season is over after suffering a fractured left wrist. Reese's injury is deflating enough that it could zap any motivation the Sky might've had to dig itself out of this funk.
Things won't get any easier for Chicago when it hits the road to face the Minnesota Lynx (27-9) on Friday night. We've seen the Sky move from a +11 underdog to as high as +13 while the total is down nearly three points from the opening line of 158.5. Despite dropping the two earlier meetings against Minnesota, Chicago has been competitive in the series, with both losses by eight or fewer points.
The big question is whether Chicago still has any fight left at this season's juncture. If we're looking for any clues on how this game will play out, the total might provide the most significant insight, particularly when we find some correlation in the player prop market. Let's get to my Sky vs Lynx predictions for this Friday.
Chicago Sky vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction
The Sky are just 2-8 in their last 10 games and has to play the remainder of the season without its talented rookie, Angel Reese. Given the disappointing injury blow to Reese, motivation could be an issue when Chicago visits Minnesota in a game that's projected to be low-scoring. With both games in this series staying under the total, we've spotted two correlated player props from which bettors can profit.
Sky vs. Lynx Picks: Isabelle Harrison under 13.5 points (-140 at Caesars) | Courtney Williams under 4.5 rebounds (+102 at FanDuel)
Sky vs. Lynx Odds
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 155.5 -112 / -108 | +520 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 155.5 -112 / -108 | -800 |
Chicago Sky: The Impact of Angel Reese's Injury
The loss of Reese dramatically impacts what the Sky does on offense because it already struggles to put the ball in the basket. While Chicago ranks 10th in field goal percentage (42.5%), Reese contributed immensely on the offensive glass to give the team second-chance opportunities.
While it's true that many of those misses were her own doing, offensive rebounds can help prevent your opponent from getting into a rhythm. With Chicago leading the league in offensive rebounding (11.2), it's no surprise that it's also one of the better teams in second-chance scoring, with 11.6 per game. Reese's absence will also impact the Sky's scoring inside the paint, averaging a league-best 41.5 points.
Rebounding is critical to Chicago's offense because it can lead to easy put-backs at the rim or help to trigger fast break opportunities on the other end of the court. One thing the Sky won't do is offer much of a perimeter threat, considering they are well off the pace in 3-point field goals (4.5) and attempts (14.3), ranking dead last in both categories.
Although Chicago's offense can be one-dimensional, it had an identity with Reese on the court. And with just four games remaining in the regular season, it might be too late for the Sky to try and play a different brand of basketball.
Minnesota Lynx: Quality Defense & Perimeter Shooting
The Lynx match up very well with Chicago because they don't have to worry about the 3-point shot like it would with other teams. Minnesota is an elite defensive team that leads the league in opponent field goal percentage (41%). It can also quickly turn defense into offense by scoring the second-highest points off turnovers (18.2).
What's impressive is that the Lynx already allows the fifth-highest field goal attempts (69.1), yet it still does a tremendous job in contesting shots. And while Chicago tries to control the game on the glass, Minnesota is more likely to dominate the tempo.
Even though the Lynx play at the second-slowest pace in the league, it's still a top-four team in offensive efficiency (103.3).
One thing that's clear is that Minnesota uses the clock to hunt for better shots. By being more patient, it improved its perimeter shooting from 32.5% to a league-best 38.1%. The combination of solid defense and quality perimeter shooting while playing at its own pace have all played a massive role in Minnesota's success this season.
Sky vs. Lynx: Two Player Props to Target
It shouldn't go unnoticed that both games in this series finished under the total. However, with the over/under dropping by as many as three points, we've already lost some value at the current number. One remaining option is to target some player props to stay under their projections.
Chicago's Isabelle Harrison is one player that comes to mind because she replaced Reese in the starting lineup.
Harrison's points projection is 13.5 despite having only two starts on the year, averaging 6.1 points in 15 minutes. While it's clear that she'll have an uptick in minutes, she's still at the bottom of the pecking order when it comes to getting offensive touches.
I know she recently poured in 21 points in 32.6 minutes during her first start, but that was against a Wings team that plays at the fastest pace (81.55) and has the worst defensive rating (111.3). Since those two factors don't apply to Minnesota, there's value in Harrison staying under her points prop.
Another prop that offers some intrigue is Minnesota's Courtney Williams finishing with under 4.5 rebounds. Williams has gone under this number in five of her last six games when facing an opponent ranked in the top five in rebounds allowed. She's also coming off a seven-rebound performance against Atlanta, so this is a reasonable spot to fade her in the next game.
In her seven games this season after grabbing seven or more rebounds, she's collected fewer than five on six of those occasions. While Reese won't be on the floor, Williams will still have to try and navigate Chicago's 6-foot-7 center Kamilla Cardoso.
Lynx vs. Sky Picks: Isabelle Harrison under 13.5 points (-140 at Caesars) | Courtney Williams under 4.5 rebounds (+102 at FanDuel)
How to Watch Sky vs. Lynx
| Sky vs. Lynx | Friday, September 13 |
| Start Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ION & YouTube TV |
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
Sky vs. Lynx is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET live from Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Friday. This WNBA matchup between the playoff bound Lynx and Angel Reese-less Sky is on ION and streaming on YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
