Sky vs Liberty Picks, Odds | WNBA Predictions (Thursday, July 11)

Thursday, July 11

7 p.m. ET

Prime Video

Sky Odds
Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
+11 -110	165.5 -110/-110	+485

Liberty Odds
Spread	Over/Under	Moneyline
-11 -110	165.5 -110/-110	-700

Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute WNBA odds here.

The games are coming fast before the WNBA goes on a hiatus for the All-Star break and Summer Games.

One example of this busy schedule involves the Sky and Liberty, who are each playing a second game in as many days after participating in the league’s annual “Camp Day.”

Although New York is a big home favorite, laying that many points has proven costly for Liberty bettors this season.

Chicago Sky

Chicago has probably been a bit better than its 9-12 record indicates. It’s currently three games under .500, despite having a point differential of just -1.3.

In comparison, Phoenix (11-10) is one game above .500 with a -1.9 point differential.

Furthermore, if we assessed the WNBA teams based on their Net Rating, Chicago (-1.6) would be the sixth-ranked team in the league. 

Chicago isn’t the most skilled team in the league offensively. It ranks ninth in efficiency with 97.7 points per 100 possessions.

However, it does a tremendous job on the glass, collecting a league-best 36.7 rebounds per game.

Chicago struggles to put the ball in the basket (ranked 11th in field goal percentage-42.2%), but finds other ways to create scoring chances.

The Sky create extra opportunities on the offensive glass and lead the league with 11.3 offensive rebounds per game.

Chicago’s ability to rebound helps keep it in games, especially against better opponents.

New York Liberty

The Liberty boast the best Net Rating in the league (+11.5) and have improved defensively from last season as they're allowing 3.2 fewer points per 100 possessions.

New York returned all of its core players from a season ago and is getting much more production from Jonquel Jones, who is in her second year with the team.

The five-time All-Star and 2021 MVP averages 16 points per game after scoring just 11.3 per game in 2023. 

While the gap between the Liberty and reigning WNBA champion Las Vegas Aces has somewhat narrowed, New York sometimes doesn’t look as convincing, especially when facing some of the league's lesser teams.

It’s worth noting that last year, Las Vegas finished the regular season with a +15.3 Net Rating — five points higher than New York’s is at the moment.

Perhaps the most frustrating thing about New York is that it plays with a bit too much finesse. Its 39.2% 3-point rate is 3.3% higher than any other team in the league.

New York ranks fifth in 3-point field goal percentage (33.9%), but its aggressiveness on the perimeter allows it to build some sizeable leads.

However, having balance is also essential and New York could benefit from more scoring in the paint.

Nonetheless, there’s no question that New York’s 17-4 record provides sufficient justification for its willingness to live and die by the 3.

Sky vs. Liberty

Betting Pick & Prediction

If the perimeter shots aren’t falling for New York, there’s always a chance an underdog can sneak through the back door for a cover.

Chicago does a decent job defending the 3 and is holding opponents to the league's third-fewest 3-point attempts per game.

Thus, Chicago could limit New York’s biggest strength — perimeter shooting.

I’m always a bit leery about laying doubledigits, and this season, according to our Action Labs database, teams in this spot are just 9-23 (28.1%) against the spread (ATS).

Moreover, if we limit our query to only New York, the ATS mark worsens to 1-9 (10%).

My model projects Chicago being closer to an eight-point underdog, giving us a significant edge with the BetMGM line at +11.5.

Pick: Sky +11.5 

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