Commissioner’s Cup WNBA Best Bets: Picks & Predictions for Lynx vs Liberty (Tuesday, June 25)
Kayla McBride #21 of the Minnesota Lynx handles the ball against defender Sabrina Ionescu #20 of the New York Liberty during the game. (Photo by Evan Yu/NBAE via Getty Images)
The WNBA Commissioner's Cup title game has arrived! It's going down between the Minnesota Lynx (13-3) and the league's current best team, the New York Liberty (15-3) tonight on Prime Video at 8 p.m. ET. The Libs have a repeat set in their sights as they receive somewhat of a home advantage at USB Arena in New York.
But no matter what the Liberty have shown thus far this season, our experts break down why you shouldn't sleep on the Lynx coming in to prove their point.
With nine best bets and predictions on deck for Tuesday, June 25, let's get right into our WNBA best bets and expert picks for today.
WNBA Best Bets Today | Tuesday, June 25
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our WNBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Lynx vs. Liberty
Pick: Liberty -3.5 (-115)
Lynx vs. Liberty
By Joe Dellera
The Commissioner’s Cup Final is here and there’s a playoff atmosphere surrounding this game with significant monetary incentives to win this game.
I’m targeting last season’s Commissioner’s Cup MVP in this contest. JJ’s PR line is set at 24.5 which is a number she has cleared in 11/18 this season. While she was a total no show against the Lynx on May 25th I think her getting into foul trouble really disrupted her rhythm.
Considering this should be a game where she should see extended run there’s additional upside. This season she is averaging about 30 minutes per game but last season she played closer to 35 during the Playoffs. Considering these are 40 minute games that’s a significant uptick. Last playoffs this prop had a 70% hit rate and she averaged 28.6 PR.
Besides his rate, Minnesota allows the second most rebounds per game and the most offensive rebounds per game. This is a great spot for JJ as she can crash both the defensive and offensive glass while securing a few putbacks.
I’m backing JJ to have a strong performance.
Pick: Jonquel Jones over 24.5 PR
Lynx vs. Liberty
By Jim Turvey
The Commissioner's Cup Final takes place on Tuesday night, with the New York Liberty looking for their second straight title in the in-season tournament. They'll play host to the Minnesota Lynx and are currently laying 5.5 points, with a total of 162.5.
Despite this total being on the rise (opened at 160.5), I'm looking towards the under.
There are a variety of factors here. For one, this is the second- and third-best defenses in the WNBA, a fact that is evident on the surface and baked into the line, but bears mentioning. The Lynx defense, in particular, has been absolutely cooking, having allowed 60 and 55 points their last two games, and having not allowed a team to pass 80 points in a game since the Aces two weeks back.
In fact, the 86 points the Lynx allowed to Las Vegas were the only time a team scored more than 83.5 (the current team total for the Liberty) points in regulation against the Lynx this season.
This game will also be taking place at UBS Arena in Long Island not the Barclays Center, the Liberty's standard home court. That means a new court for players to adjust to, in a game that is going to be played in a playoff atmosphere (slower pace; tighter shooters from three).
These are also the two teams that give up the fewest free throws to their opponents this season, and the first time these two teams met this season, they played at a notably slower pace than their norm.
As noted, the over is taking steam, so feel free to wait, but I'm going to be all over the under in this game.
Pick: Under 162.5
Lynx vs. Liberty
This game showcases two of the best teams in the WNBA, and yet we’re seeing the 12-4 ATS Lynx getting 5.5 points. We saw this matchup one time already this season on May 25th, when Minnesota defended their home court in a 84-67 win. This time around, New York should’ve had the benefit of home court advantage, but they were forced relocate to UBS Arena because Barclays Center is hosting the first round of the NBA Draft on Wednesday.
As far as offense goes, these are the top two teams in 3-point shooting percentage, with New York also leading the league in 3-point attempts. However, Minnesota ranks 1st in opponent three point percentage while New York sits at 5th. So last time vs the Lynx, the Liberty went just 7-29 (24.1%) from from deep, while the Lynx hit 14 threes on 28 attempts. The Lynx's dominant defense paired with their highly efficient offense, should give a Liberty trouble yet again, so I'll take the points here.
Pick: Lynx +5.5
Lynx vs. Liberty
By Jim Turvey
There's a few longshots I like tied to Bridget Carleton on Tuesday evening (make sure to listen to today's episode of Buckets WNBA), but this is one of my absolute favorites.
Carleton has seen her minutes and usage really jump of late, averaging 10.9 points, 2.9 threes and 31.7 minutes per game over the past seven games, after being at 5.5/1.3/26.8 for those three categories in the first eight games of the season.
At first blush that might look like a convenient cut-off point, but with the Lynx roster as constructed, head coach Cheryl Reeve has truly been rolling out the hot hands this season. And not many hands are hotter than Carleton's right now. She's shooting 58.8 percent from three over these past seven games, and while that will obviously not sustain, it has bought her lots of increased minutes and usage.
Carleton's success has tied to Minnesota's success as well, with the team being 10-0 when she scores at least 5 points compared to 2-3 when she scores less than five. She has reached a dozen points in five games–all five games were wins, and all five came in the last month.
I'd play this to +550.
Pick: Bridget Carleton to score 12 points and Lynx to win +900
Lynx vs. Liberty
MVP candidate Napheesa Collier hasn't merely picked up where she left off last season, but has been more well-rounded in terms of production, and that includes a heightened activity on the glass.
Collier is pulling down a career-best 10.4 rebounds per contest.
Inevitably, this prop may raise to 9.5, if not by the time you're reading this, then by tip-off. Collier, overall, has eclipsed 8.5 boards in 11 of 16 games and has gotten double digits in 9 of those 11. She had 12 against the New York Liberty on May 25. And after getting over 8.5 boards in all but one of her first 11 games this season, she's only gone over in one of five — and I'm betting that that's the anomaly.
This is a good buy low spot to me, hence the 8.5. I'd take this over 9.5 also if I absolutely have to, but 8.5 is obviously the preference.
Pick: Napheesa Collier over 8.5 rebounds
Lynx vs. Liberty
Pick: Under 162.5
Lynx vs. Liberty
The Lynx dropped 84 against the Liberty in a 17-point win last month. Additionally, they've cleared 78.5 points all but three times this season, and this number is just too low because of back to back unders — both in wins.
The Liberty defense is really good, but the Lynx clear this number regularly and are third in offense this season with an even better defensive profile than the Liberty so far with a league-best +13.3 net rating.
I don't like the 78.5 even if this will have a playoff atmosphere, so give me the over given the body of work.
Pick: Lynx total team over 78.5 points
Lynx vs. Liberty
Pick: Napheesa Collier Double Double +100
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