The Connecticut Sun did what they needed to do, and how the series comes back home, where they'll have an opportunity to put the Minnesota Lynx away in four — but first, they have to win Friday night.
The Sun are hardly favored, but we'll assess whether or not that's a mistake.
Connecticut Sun Game 3 Odds vs. Lynx
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 151.5 -110 / -110 | +114 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 151.5 -110 / -110 | -135 |
- Sun spread vs. Lynx: Sun -2.5
- Sun vs. Lynx over/under: 151.5 points
- Sun moneyline vs. Lynx: Sun -135 to win outright
Why The Connecticut Sun Can Cover In Game 3
Again again and again — it starts with defense here.
I've been saying it all year, this is the best defense in the league. But, of course, no matter how well you defend, it's damn near to win when you shoot like sh*t.
The Sun shot 50 percent from three and blew out the Indiana Fever 93-69 in Game 1 last round. Survived in Game 2 87-81 to close them out despite shooting 26 percent from deep. They stole Game 1 in Minnesota, winning 73-70 shooting 41 percent from deep, and lost 77-70 in Game 2 despite shooting 25 percent from deep and 17 percentage points worse than the Lynx.
The Sun have played all their playoff opponents to total team unders in the playoffs outside of the Fever in Game 2. They've also only covered in their victories, and in Game 1, they did so as underdogs.
Of note, we hit Brionna Jones under 8.5 points last game as our best bet on the Sun side and she finished with two points while continuing to be phased out. She's not even listed for Game 3 props as of this writing.
Marina Mabrey's points prop was beginning to flirt with the high teens and is back down to 15.5 points for Game 3 after shooting 4-for-14 from the field and 2-for-8 from three last game and ending the night with 15 points. Before that, she averaged 21.3 points in her first three playoff outings while shooting 42.4 percent from deep on 11 attempts per contest.
And as always, Alyssa Thomas, DiJonai Carrington and DeWanna Bonner will be ones to watch in Game 3. AT just got to 35 PRA (18 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists) and is listed at 32.5 for Game 3. She's had at least 35 PRA in all four playoff games so far.
Lynx vs. Sun
Betting Pick & Prediction
I got two plays I like here. I think this is a spot for the Sun to take the lead at home, and I like them to cover the narrow -1.5 spread in Connecticut. And I also like Thomas over 32.5 PRA. As mentioned, she's cleared this fairly easily in all four. I've logged them individually in the Action App, but if you're interested, these two legs would be +201 on FanDuel in a parlay.
Pick: Sun -1.5 | Alyssa Thomas over 32.5 PRA
How to Watch Sun vs. Lynx: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Lynx vs. Sun | Friday, October 4 |
| Start Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN 2 / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Montville, Connecticut |
Lynx vs. Sun is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET live from Mohegan Sun Arena in Montville, Connecticut on Friday. Game 3 of the semifinals WNBA playoff matchup is airing on TV on ESPN 2 and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
Connecticut Sun Betting Trends
- Sun are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Sun are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Sun are 11-9 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Sun' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 8 of Sun' 20 last games at home.
