Connecticut Sun Game 4 Preview vs. Minnesota Lynx
What the hell was that, Connecticut?
Game 3 was such an oddity, which we'll get into here, but the Sun will be looking to force a winner take all Game 5 with a win on their home floor Sunday.
Can they? Hell, after that last effort, we'll see…
Why The Connecticut Sun Can Cover In Game 4
The Sun allowed 90 points for the third time this season.
And for the first time all year, a team scored at least 20 points in each of the four quarters against them.
The Lynx shot 30-for-46 from two-point range and nearly routed the Sun despite a 5-for-15 three-point display.
The Sun collective had a 126 defensive rating — an imperfect stat but it makes sense here — due to getting killed with backdoor cut after backdoor cut.
The Sun also force-fed Brionna Jones, which appeared to knock their offense out of rhythm.
Jones had a great statistical scoring effort, pacing the Sun for 21 points on 8-of-13 shooting. However, her usage was 24.5 percent, second only to Alyssa Thomas of Sun players, and it didn't appear to actually help their offense dramatically. Shooters never caught their rhythm as the team shot just 3-for-20 from three — Marina Mabrey was 1-for-11.
And moreover, Jones had the worst defensive rating (126) among all starters, which makes sense given that the Lynx made nearly two thirds of their twos, continually created opportunities at the rim, and won the glass in Jones' minutes. Jones logged about 30 minutes — a playoff-high — but only came away with four boards and had an 8.6 rebounding percentage, the worst of any Sun player who logged over 10 minutes — there were six of them.
So the Sun appeared to finally get Jones going, but it's fair to question at what cost, and it'll be interesting to see if their offensive disposition is different once Game 4 tips off. Will they make Jones an offensive focal point again, or will she revert to getting "played of the floor," if you will. Jones had 20 points in the four playoff games combined prior to Game 4 and averaged just 17.9 minutes per contest. Currently, her rebounding percentage is 8.2 for the playoffs, a post-season career low.
The Sun out-rebounded the Lynx 39-32 in Game 1 but fell short in Game 2 (35-32). They managed to win the battle on the glass 33-29 in Game 3, 13-6 on offense, but they couldn't shoot better than 15 percent from deep, so it didn't matter.
Alyssa Thomas got her first PRA under of the post-season. She hadn't fallen below 35 as her prop hovered around 32.5, but got to 29 in Game 3. If the Sun are to win Game 4, AT would likely be in for a bounce back effort in that regard, one would think.
Lynx vs. Sun: Bonner's Props The Bet To Target
Betting Pick & Prediction
There are a lot of interesting looks from a totals perspective in a contest that could legitimately go far on either end of the spectrum — but I'm going with a player prop. DeWanna Bonner over 14.5 points — she's cleared this in two straight and four of five playoff games this year. In a must win spot, they'll need her creativity on offense, and every game she's gotten to at least 15 or more points in the playoffs, she has hit at least two threes — her over/under is 1.5. Bonner has netted 15 or more points in 26 (out of 45) games this season, including playoffs, and in 18 of those efforts, she has also gotten two or more threes.
Pick: DeWanna Bonner over 14.5 points | Over 1.5 threes
How to Watch Game 4: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Lynx vs. Sun | Sunday, October 6 |
| Start Time: | 5 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Montville, Connecticut |
Sun vs. Lynx is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET live from Mohegan Sun Arena in Montville, Connecticut on Sunday. Game 4 of the semifinals WNBA playoff matchup is airing on TV on ESPN and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
Connecticut Sun Betting Trends
- Sun are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Sun are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Sun are 11-9 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Sun' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 8 of Sun' 20 last games at home.
