Sun vs Lynx Odds | WNBA Picks, Predictions for Thursday (July 4)

The top two defensive teams in the league go head to head again tonight. Last time they played back on May 23, we saw a one-point overtime win by the Sun. Needless to say, overtime led to an over. But now, this time around, we’re seeing one of the lowest totals of the season at 151.

Let's get to my WNBA pick for Thursday, July 4 — featuring a spread prediction for Sun vs. Lynx, with the odds currently favoring Minnesota by three points (-3) on FanDuel.

Both of these teams have dominant defenses, and sit at the bottom of the league in pace. Although, it may be important to note that the Sun have only played five of their games vs opponents with winning records. Nevertheless, in that overtime win vs. Minnesota earlier this season, they held the Lynx to just 19.1% from deep (4-21), while shooting 45.5% (5-11) themselves. These are the two best teams in the league in opponent 3-point percentage and it definitely shows.

Unfortunately, the Sun’s offense also ranks second to last in 3-point rate and percentage of points from three. So, if they can lock down the perimeter again they have a shot of staying in this. But, I think we see the Lynx regress back towards their superior perimeter presence. Connecticut has covered the spread just one time in their last six games, which was their most recent win over Phoenix on Monday.

The Lynx are the more complete team here, and they rate first overall in 3-point shooting percentage. Their veteran leadership, from both players and coach, make this a very savvy team that prioritizes moving the ball to the best shot (ranking 2nd overall in assist to turnover ratio and effective field goal percentage.) They have a variety of offensive options. That said, both of these teams have seem scoring slow in their last five games, both ranking in the bottom three of the league in offensive rating in that span, which could be attributed to tough travel schedules for both teams (and tough opponents.)

Last time they played, both teams finished with 72 points scored in regulation before the Sun went on to win in overtime. This time, both teams are coming off those tough five game stretches, which could mean we see defense that’s not as polished as we’re used to. The Lynx have only had four overs in their last 12 games, but this total is too low for me when a game like this could come down to fouling and free throws, so I would err on the side of over 151.

I’ll side with the favorites here, who are back at home after four consecutive road games in seven days. The Lynx will be on one day’s rest, but this will be Connecticut’s fifth road game in their last six played.

Currently, the Sun are 3-5 ATS on the road and 0-3 ATS as the underdog. They are also coming off a win, while the Lynx are coming off a loss in New York, and will be looking to get back in the win column.

This line originally opened at Lynx -1.5, and has already been bet up to -3.

Pick: Lynx -3 (-105)

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