As expected, this WNBA semifinal series between the Minnesota Lynx and Connecticut Sun, the two best defenses in the W, has been a knock-down drag-out affair.
After a slow start yet again in Game 4, the Sun found a spark in Tyasha Harris, who posted 20 points on 7-for-11 shooting to propel them over Minnesota.
Anything can happen in Game 5, especially with these two evenly-matched, defensive-centric squads. Which team will advance to the Finals for a date with the league’s-best New York Liberty?
Below, we break down this Sun vs. Lynx Game 5 matchup, featuring our picks and predictions – check it out!
Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun Prediction
Harris looked phenomenal in her return to the starting lineup for Connecticut, especially from behind the arc, where she knocked down four of her five attempts.
Adding Harris back into the rotation, after she missed some time due to a sprained ankle, gives Connecticut another threat from deep, which will be imperative in keeping up with Minnesota and its elite shooting.
Connecticut and its players have been in a win-or-go-home situation many times before, so expect the Sun to fix their recent shortcomings on the defensive end and, at least, keep this one close.
Lynx vs. Sun Pick: Connecticut Sun +4 (-108, FanDuel)
Sun vs. Lynx Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4.5 -112 | 151.5 -106o / -114u | +152 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4.5 -108 | 151.5 -106o / -114u | -188 |
- Sun spread vs. Lynx: Sun +4.5 (-112), Lynx -4.5 (-108)
- Sun vs. Lynx over/under: 151.5 points (-106o / -114u)
- Sun vs. Lynx moneyline: Sun +152, Lynx -188
Connecticut Sun: Improving at the Perimeter
It has been so challenging to bet on the Connecticut Sun in this semifinal series: you never know which team you will get on any given day.
In Game 3, the Sun looked lethargic, were slow to get into their offensive sets, and got beat off the dribble at the point-of-attack more than we had seen all season.
Even more concerning was Connecticut’s horrendous 3-point shooting. The Sun hit only a combined eight of their 40 attempts from deep in Games 2 and 3.
However, Harris, posted 20 points on a hyper-efficient 64/80/100 shooting split and led the Sun in scoring despite playing 16 combined minutes through the first three games of this semifinals series.
Harris injured her ankle early in the postseason and finally was able to return to the starting lineup in lieu of Marina Mabrey.
Despite dominating at the beginning of the playoffs, Mabrey has struggled in her past three games, hitting only 31.8% of her shots from the floor and 20% of her looks from behind the arc.
With Harris now (seemingly) at full health, the Sun has their top 3-point weapon from the regular season back in the lineup. Will it be enough to knock off the Lynx on the road, though?
Minnesota Lynx: Collier Needs Help
Napheesa Collier had a slow start to the semifinals, but in her past two games, she has been sensational. Collier poured in 29 points on a ridiculous 9-for-15 shooting from the field; she also pulled down 13 rebounds to help Minnesota keep the rebounding battle within striking distance.
By no stretch of the imagination did Minnesota play poorly offensively, hitting roughly 47% of its field goal attempts and 39% of its attempts from behind the arc in Game 4; however, Connecticut was simply red-hot from all over the floor, especially after the end of the first quarter.
Minnesota’s path to victory comes down to improved perimeter defense, winning the rebounding battle, which is an area it has struggled in all season, and giving Collier sufficient help on the offensive end of the floor.
Carleton can’t have another 2-for-11 shooting night from deep if the Lynx want to put the Sun to sleep and advance to the Finals.
Sun vs. Lynx: Sun-Kissed
Betting Pick & Prediction
Connecticut had an offensive resurgence in Game 4 after two of its worst 3-point shooting nights in recent memory.
While bettors should not expect the Sun to stripe it at the clip they did in Game 4, Harris’ return has clearly brought confidence back to this team’s perimeter shooting, which has been a huge reason they fell short in their previous two games.
Between an improved half-court offense (and 3-point shooting) and their substantial playoff experience and maturity, Connecticut should keep this game within one possession by the final horn.
Lynx vs. Sun Pick: Connecticut Sun +4 (-108, FanDuel)
How to Watch Sun vs. Lynx: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Lynx vs. Sun | Tuesday, October 8 |
| Start Time: | 8 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN 2 / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
Lynx vs. Sun is scheduled for 8 p.m. ET live from Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Tuesday. The decisive Game 5 of the semifinals WNBA playoff matchup is airing on TV on ESPN 2 and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
