The Connecticut Sun and Minnesota Lynx, two of the best defensive teams in the W, face off in the semis for a chance to go to the Finals. The pressure is on!
Both teams handled their first-round opponents, sweeping them in two games; however, this round won’t be nearly as simple.
Below, we detail the Sun vs. Lynx series preview, including our prediction and best bet for the matchup between two of the fiercest defensive squads in the league.
Connecticut Sun
Connecticut’s playoff experience shone through in its first-round matchup against Indiana. The Fever, who were one of the hottest teams in the W coming into the series, had absolutely no answer for the Sun’s suffocating half-court defense.
Most of Indiana’s success offensively came from Caitlin Clark’s generational passing talent and isolation scoring ability. The Fever were only able to string together runs when they got out in transition off misses and turnovers.
Now, Connecticut faces Minnesota, a team similar to itself in style and pace. Both teams like a knock-down-drag-out, defensive-centric game.
The only major difference between Connecticut and Minnesota is 3-point shooting; the Sun take the second-fewest 3-pointers and only hit 32.7% of those attempts, while the Lynx lead the W in 3-point percentage (38.0%).
Still, Connecticut has done a fantastic job this season mitigating this weakness by defending the 3-point line exceptionally well.
Minnesota Lynx
There are both positive and negative takeaways from Minnesota’s first-round series against the Mercury.
First, the bad news: Minnesota allowed the Mercury to post 95 and 88 points in Games 1 and 2, respectively, which is substantially higher than its season average (75.6).
This Lynx team, which had been heralded all season for being a top-two defense in the W, allowed Phoenix to shoot a blistering 51% from the field and 42% from 3-point land in their first two postseason games.
Interestingly, Minnesota’s opponents had previously only scored 88 or more points five times this season, meaning that only 12.5% of their opponents were able to accomplish that feat.
But an average Phoenix offense (eighth in offensive rating, sixth in effective field goal percentage) was able to do it in back-to-back games. That's not an ideal trend.
And now for the good news: Napheesa Collier has been on a tear.
Collier just tied the record for most points scored in a postseason game with 42. She averaged an astounding 40 points, 5.5 rebounds, and four assists in the first-round series against Phoenix, knocking down 64% of her field goal attempts, 63% of her 3-point tries, and 89% of her free-throws.
Phoenix did not have an answer for Collier, who seemed to score or get fouled every time she had the ball in her hands.
Sun vs Lynx Picks & Prediction: WNBA Series Preview
The Lynx were the hottest team in the W entering the postseason, winning 13 of their final 15 games. One of those two losses came in the final regular season game, which was a total punt, as Minnesota had already locked up the No. 2 seed in the playoffs.
Minnesota took care of Phoenix in two games, but it was nowhere near as comfortable as expected. In fact, if it weren’t for Collier’s heroic efforts in both games, the Lynx almost certainly would have dropped at least one of those bouts.
Meanwhile, Connecticut is fresh off holding a red-hot Fever team to 14-for-58 (24.1%) shooting from behind the arc in its first-round matchup, emphasizing perimeter pressure to disrupt their halfcourt offense.
Despite Caitlin Clark’s best efforts and a slow start in Game 2, the Sun dominated; their gameplan execution was as close to flawless as possible.
Expect Connecticut to again make a point of aggressively defending the point-of-attack and playing close and tight to Lynx players, forcing them to score inside the arc instead of getting looks from the 3-point line.
After all, the Sun have ranked first this season in opponent points in the paint while Minnesota ranks last in paint scoring, so making a 3-point-heavy Lynx team score inside will be a priority.
Ultimately, Minnesota is leaning too heavily on Collier to get its offense, whereas the Sun is one of the most well-distributed scoring teams in the W. They had seven players score at least eight points against Indiana in Game 2.
The Sun are so physical and consistent defensively and balanced offensively; their series against the Fever further validated that New York might be the only team that can beat them.
Best Bet: Connecticut Sun To Win Series (+184, FanDuel)
