The Connecticut Sun are on a quest for some payback after three winless tries against the Liberty this season. One of those losses knocked Connecticut out of the Commissioner's Cup and snapped its streak of nine straight victories to start the season.
Let's dive deep into the previous three meetings and see why Connecticut might be getting closer to narrowing the gap as I make a Sun vs. Liberty prediction, as New York opened as a seven-point favorite, but that number is now up to -8.
Sun vs. Liberty Prediction
- Sun vs Liberty Pick: Sun to Cover the Spread
Although Connecticut lost each of its past three meetings against New York, you could argue that the Sun outplayed the Liberty in those games. The addition of Marina Mabrey could be the missing link to the Sun picking up their first win in this series.
With Mabrey now on the team, we have a higher point spread, which should signal some value on Connecticut as an underdog.
Sun vs. Liberty Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 157 -110o / -110u | +290 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 157 -110o / -110u | -385 |
Sun vs Liberty Betting Preview
This season might be "The Last Dance" for the Connecticut Sun as DeWanna Bonner, Alyssa Thomas and Brionna Jones are all on the last year of their contracts.
Bonner and Thomas are more than just teammates and got engaged during the 2023 All-Star Break. However, their relationship doesn't preclude them from pursuing opportunities to play on separate teams.
“We both have our own individual careers, and we do what’s best for ourselves," Thomas said in a June interview with Pat Eaton-Robb from the Associated Press. “So, none of that ‘us being together’ factors into it."
Connecticut is still searching for its first WNBA title after unsuccessful trips to the WNBA Finals in 2004, 2005, 2019 and 2022.
We already know Connecticut's been an excellent team defensively. The real question is how much improvement could it show on the offensive end of the court?
You could make the case that the Aces won the WNBA title in each of the past two seasons because they had the best offense in the league. And for Connecticut to put itself among the elite teams, it desperately needed an offensive jolt.
The Sun recently acquired Mabrey (13.7 points per game) via trade from the Sky. The Notre Dame product should help boost Connecticut's perimeter game.
It's worth noting that no team closed higher than a 2.5-point favorite in either of the three previous meetings, yet we suddenly have an eight-point spread — even with Connecticut arguably fielding a more improved lineup.
What if I told you that the team with the better offense ended with fewer shot attempts in all three games? That's precisely what happened between the Sun and the Liberty as Connecticut has outshot New York 204-176.
The difference is that New York was able to limit Connecticut to just 39.7% shooting from the floor, which is 4.8% lower than the Sun's season average.
New York also lost the battle on the glass (101-91), which is why Connecticut was able to put up more shots.
Lastly, the Liberty have committed more turnovers (43-37) than the Sun in the season series.
When you look at those numbers, it's almost a marvel that New York has won all three games.
However, the one factor we've yet to mention is the perimeter shooting.
The Liberty will need to be particularly aware of Mabrey because that's why the Sun targeted her in that trade.
With Connecticut ranking 11th in 3-point attempts and 10th in 3-point field goals, Mabrey can help provide a spark. After all, 53.8% of her shot attempts are 3-pointers and she's shooting 35.8% from the perimeter in her career.
Thus, you have to be a bit speculative as to why this spread is so high after Connecticut made a concerted effort to try and address one of its biggest weaknesses.
Sun vs Liberty Prediction: Value On Underdog
Sun vs Liberty Best Bet
New York has been tremendous this season. The Liberty ranks first in Offensive Rating and are a tenth of a point away from the league lead in Defensive Efficiency.
However, our review of the box scores shows this series has been a bit closer than the head-to-head record suggests.
Connecticut has also managed to play these games at its pace, with all three meetings finishing under 160 points.
If the Sun can get anything out of Mabrey while continuing to dictate the pace and dominate the glass, they stand a decent chance of covering this spread on the road.
Sun vs. Liberty Pick: Sun +8 or Better
Sun vs Liberty Betting Trends
- 37% of the bets and 90% of the money are on the Liberty to cover the spread.
- 75% of the bets and 87% of the money are on the under.
SUN BETTING TRENDS:
- Sun are 3-2 in their last 5 games
- Sun are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Sun are 6-7 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 3 of Sun' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Sun' 15 last games at home
LIBERTY BETTING TRENDS:
- Liberty are 5-0 in their last 5 games
- Liberty are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
- Liberty are 10-4 in their road games against the spread
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Liberty' last 5 games
- The totals have gone OVER in 10 of Liberty' 16 last games at home
