The Connecticut Sun (26-10) are all tuned up after two wins over the Sparks, and now face a Phoenix Mercury (17-19) team that has lost and failed to cover in back to back games. In fact, the Mercury have lost seven of their last 10 games and failed to cover as many.
The Mercury may also be without the talents of Kahleah Copper, who is listed as a game time decision for this matchup. Copper is the team’s leading scorer, averaging 21.6 points per game, which makes betting the under and the Sun to cover in tonight's WNBA matchup very enticing. Continue below for my Sun vs Mercury predictions for Friday night.
Connecticut Sun vs. Phoenix Mercury Prediction
Sun vs. Mercury Picks: Sun -5.5, Under 158.5
Sun vs. Mercury Odds
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-5.5 -110 | 157.5 -110 / -110 | -235 |
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+5.5 -110 | 157.5 -110 / -110 | +186 |
Connecticut Sun: Four Straight Games Under the Total
Connecticut’s defense took a dip after adding Marina Mabrey to the mix, but has leveled out and contributed to the Sun hitting four unders in a row. In their most recent win, Mabrey led the team in scoring with 26 points on 9-of-13 shooting. Still, the Sun’s offensive rating was better before the Olympic Break than now, and they are dead-last in the league in pace.
In the Sun’s last win over the Mercury, they did hit the over (158.5), but they also had Rachel Banham make 8-of-11 threes. Banham has since left to Chicago via the Mabrey trade. The two head to head matchups before that win, did not see more than 155 points scored.
Phoenix Mercury: Potential Playoff Preview?
Phoenix lost to Connecticut all three previous matchups this season. Now, with Copper possibly out, the Mercury could be missing a large part of their points production. They are only sixth in the league in points per 100 possessions, so the absence would be noticeable. They are also ninth in the league in possessions per 40 minutes, and last in 3-point rate.
As far as playoffs are concerned, the Mercury managed to clinch a playoff berth last week after beating Atlanta. They are currently the seventh seed behind the Indiana Fever. The Sun are one game behind the Lynx for the second spot and hold the tiebreaker after beating Minnesota twice this season. If the Sun finish second and the Mercury stay in seventh, these two teams will meet again in the postseason.
Sun vs. Mercury: Back This Trend to Continue
Road favorites have gone 57-42-1 (57.6%) against the spread this season. The Sun covered as 7.5-point favorites the last time they played the Mercury, and with Copper out or even limited, they should be able to cover the -5.5 points in this spot.
Mercury vs. Sun Picks: Sun -5.5, Under 157.5
