Connecticut Sun WNBA Title Odds: 2023 Preseason Betting Analysis & Preview

Connecticut Sun WNBA Title Odds

The Connecticut Sun were on the other end of a blockbuster trade that sent their former MVP (Jonquel Jones) to New York, which will have a huge impact on their ceiling. As we enter the 2023 WNBA season, the Sun are tied for the fourth-longest title odds at +4500, according to FanDuel.

Here’s a look at their notable offseason moves and analysis on how to approach betting the Sun before the WNBA season tips off.

Notable Offseason Transactions

Additions: Tiffany Hayes, Alexis Morris (No. 22 pick in 2023 WNBA Draft), Ashten Prechtel (No. 34 pick).

Departures: Jonquel Jones, Courtney Williams, Jasmine Thomas.

Betting Analysis

The market has shifted incredibly hard on the team that had the best regular season Net Rating in 2022, and I'm not entirely sure the move is entirely deserved.

The Sun had a +10.2 net rating last season, well clear of even the eventual champion Las Vegas Aces, who had a +7.9 net rating in the regular season. The Sun were taken apart handily by the Aces in the 2022 WNBA Finals, but this team was a juggernaut last year, especially in the regular season.

The loss of Jonquel Jones will certainly hurt — she was the 2021 MVP after all — but the Sun are in decent shape to make up for her loss. In Brionna Jones, they have a player who was, on a per minute basis, actually more valuable to the Sun last season than Jonquel. I am not here to say Brionna is the better Jones (it would be a fun debate), but instead I want to note that they have a really solid immediate replacement in the form of last season's Sixth Woman of the Year.

The other notable departure from the Sun is Courtney Williams, but the Sun did well in replacing her by bringing in Tiffany Hayes. Personally, I see Hayes as a better overall player on the offensive end, and near even on the defensive side, where Hayes used to be great but declined due to aging.

The biggest loss for the Sun may be head coach Curt Miller, who was incredible over seven seasons to establish the Sun as a yearly contender. However, new coach Stephanie White has a WNBA Finals appearance on her resume. It's yet another talented addition to make up for a big outgoing loss.

All of that combines to have the Sun much higher for me personally than the market. The Sun currently have the championship odds of a fringe playoff team and a win total set at 22.5, with the juice on the under (-136). I see them as a playoff lock (so does FanDuel at -2500), and I have their win total at 24.

That being said, I could see this team getting off to a bit of a slow start. The full top six of their rotation is either playing or just played overseas this past offseason, which means they will either not be as fresh as some other teams, or may even be missing a player or two briefly.

They also have a new head coach and some new faces. So while I am high on the Sun comparatively, I likely will be getting a feel for them first before diving in — unless the market truly undersells them.