The Dallas Wings hope their second game in three days against the New York Liberty will go much better than Tuesday's 94-74 loss at the Barclays Center.
While New York will be looking for a repeat performance, it's a heavy favorite at -13.5. Instead, I recommend bettors bypass the spread and target a more favorable play by betting Under 172.5 points.
My Wings vs. Liberty prediction is below.
Wings vs. Liberty Prediction: Bet the Under
- Wings vs. Liberty Pick: Under 176 | Bet to 172.5
Wings vs Liberty Odds
| Wings Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+13.5 -110 | 176 -110o / -110u | +630 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-13.5 -110 | 176 -110o / -110u | -1050 |
My Wings vs Liberty Preview
There's only one game on Thursday's WNBA slate and it's a rematch from Tuesday. New York dominated that meeting, despite not having its three-time All-Star point guard, Sabrina Ionescu, who missed the game with a neck injury.
Ionescu's status remains day-to-day, but the Liberty might not need to rush her back, given how well they took care of business against the Wings.
Following the blowout victory, New York opened as a 13.5-point favorite after closing at -9.5 on Tuesday.
As bad as the Wings have looked, favorites laying 13.5 or more points are just 5-18 against the spread this season.
Thus, I see no reason to rush to the window and back the Liberty in this spot.
A better option would be a play on the total, which opened at 171.5, despite the first meeting staying under with a combined score of 168 points.
Dallas Wings Betting Preview
Injuries have derailed this campaign for the Wings. Satou Sabally only recently returned to action, while Natasha Howard, Maddy Siegrist and Odyssey Sims have also been sidelined for 10 or more games.
This has been a year to forget for Dallas, and there's probably not enough practice time remaining to get everyone back on the same page.
Additionally, the effort simply hasn't been there defensively. Seven of the Wings past 10 losses have been by 15 or more points.
Dallas ranks last in defensive efficiency (110.1 points allowed per 100 possessions) and — perhaps even more alarming — is also last in transition defense.
The Wings' inability to defend on the break highlights a lack of defensive commitment that's wreaked havoc within the team.
With New York profiling as the best offensive team in the league, Dallas will have its hands full.
New York Liberty Betting Preview
New York was relatively quiet during the offseason, but its most significant move was signing Leonie Fiebich to a training camp contract.
Fiebich wound up making the team and is one of three Liberty players to have played in all 28 games thus far. The 24-year-old forward gives the Liberty more flexibility because their rotations are now better equipped to guard all five positions and switch on defense.
At 6-foot-4, Fiebich has enough quickness to defend the perimeter and enough length to protect the rim.
In 2023, New York ranked in the bottom third for points allowed inside the paint, but this season, it's up to second in the league.
As a result, Liberty's defensive rating improved by five points, from 99.4 to 94.4.
Overall, New York's Net Rating (13.5) is 5.3 points higher than that of the next-best team, which is an even better margin than that of the Aces (+5.0) during their 2023 title run.
My Wings vs Liberty Prediction
Wings vs Liberty Best Bet
Given the Liberty's dominance, one might expect them to be a cash cow for over bettors.
However, the over in Liberty games is one game above .500 at 15-14. New York's defense is a big reason why the over hasn't been as profitable this campaign compared to last year (23-17).
Moreover, according to our Action Labs database, games with an opening total of 170 or more points this season are just 7-12 (36.87%) to the over. And if we adjust our query in this spot to only include Liberty games, the over has yet to cash in four tries.
Since my model projects that the ceiling for this game is more likely to be in the mid-160s, I can only look to the under at 172.5 points or better.
