WNBA Player Prop Picks Tonight
Dream vs. Sun
Alyssa Thomas
Under 7.5 Assists (-112)
Alyssa Thomas leads the WNBA with 7.6 assists per game, so this line may look correct at first glance, but I think there are a few reasons there is value on her under.
The current total for this game (o/u 150) is the lowest of the season. Both teams rank bottom-three in pace, which will lower the overall number of possessions and specifically dings a counting stat like assists.
The Sun played an overtime game Thursday night and should still win fairly easily tonight (current spread -10.5), so there is a chance the Sun could opt to give players like Thomas fewer minutes on the back-to-back and still come away with a win.
The trend I think is being overlooked here is the fact that Veronica Burton’s playing time has been on the rise as the Sun seem to be turning to her more over Rachel Banham. Burton has only played 49 minutes this season, but leads the team with a 43% assist rate. An increase in playing time for her would surely start to ding Thomas’s assist rate.
Playing the second leg of a back-to-back off of a game that went to OT could see Burton handle the ball at a slightly higher rate just to give Thomas the occasional breather. Either way, I’m projecting this closer to 6.5 assists with around a 62% chance of staying under 7.5.
Pick: Alyssa Thomas Under 7.5 Assists (-112)
