Fever vs Liberty Odds
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+14 -112 | 167.5 -110 / -110 | +760 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-14 -108 | 167.5 -110 / -110 | -1300 |
Life in the professional ranks hasn't been a smooth transition for Caitlin Clark. The No. 1 pick was the center of attention in college basketball but is now grappling with the pressure to perform at a level that matches the hype of her entry into the league. However, with Clark garnering so much attention in college, perhaps the expectations were too lofty for a Fever team with more questions than answers.
Clark-mania hasn’t gone unnoticed by opponents around the league who seem bound and determined to ensure that the league is so much more than a hotshot rookie. Indiana is clearly getting everyone’s best shot, having been outscored by 57 points over the first two games.
After losing 92-71 on the road to Connecticut, the New York Liberty handed Indiana a 102-66 defeat on Thursday in the first leg of a home-and-home series. With New York set for its home opener on Saturday afternoon, the quick turnaround might not be enough time for the Fever to implement any significant adjustments in the rematch.
Read below for my Fever vs. Liberty pick and prediction for Saturday.
Indiana Fever
There’s no question that teams view defending Clark as almost a personal challenge. Opposing teams are putting their best on-ball defender on Clark, with Betnijah Laney-Hamilton the latest to draw the assignment.
New York lists Laney-Hamilton as a forward, which means the team is making a calculated decision to have her guard Clark. Thus, thwarting Clark is central to how opposing teams strategize against the Fever.
In Indiana’s season opener against the Sun, Clark committed 10 turnovers and finished with 20 points on 5-of-15 shooting.
While the Iowa product protected the ball better in her second game (three turnovers), she scored only nine points and went 1-of-7 from beyond the arc.
Teams also target Clark defensively as a way to disrupt her rhythm. She’s averaging 4.5 fouls over the two games this season. The thing the Fever needs to guard against is making sure that Clark doesn’t get too overly frustrated with her struggles this early in the season.
New York Liberty
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. That should be the motto for the Liberty heading into this game. However, New York would like to improve some things, such as its perimeter shooting.
The Liberty shot 8-of-27 (29.6%) from beyond the arc. Nonetheless, New York’s dominance on the glass ensured it got plenty of second-chance opportunities by out-rebounding Indiana 40-26.
The team does rebound particularly well after finishing last season ranked second with 37.9 boards per game.
New York’s best player, Breanna Stewart, was also much more aggressive in her second game, with 21 shot attempts compared to just nine in the season opener. Stewart finished with a game-high 31 points against Indiana.
With New York likely to try and put on a show in front of its home crowd, there could be a feeling of déjà vu for a Fever team that’s clearly struggling early on.
Fever vs Liberty
Betting Pick & Prediction
It’s difficult to see any imminent changes for the Fever just two games into the season. Indiana wants to play with an up-tempo style, but it’s currently last in rebounding, which hampers its transition opportunities. As a result, opposing teams are forcing Indiana to play defense for longer stretches.
Moreover, Clark is somewhat of a defensive liability if she continues getting into foul trouble.
Based on that assessment, I can only look to the home team in this matchup, and I’m particularly intrigued by ESPN BET’s first-half point spread of -7.5.
I’ve also identified a scoring prop that also offers value: Courtney Vandersloot under 10.5 points (-115 at DraftKings)
The Liberty essentially operates with two point guards, with Vandersloot and Sabrina Ionescu in the backcourt.
However, Vandersloot is more of a pass-first player at this early stage, averaging 5.5 assists through two games. She has yet to have an outing this season with double figures in field goal attempts and is averaging fewer minutes (27.5 vs. 31.5) than Ionescu.
Last year, Vandersloot averaged 30.4 minutes per game, and if New York is making a conscious effort to avoid wearing her out at age 35, there’s a decent chance we will continue to see some correlation with a reduction in scoring.
Picks: Liberty 1H -7.5 (-120), Courtney Vandersloot Under 10.5 Points (-130)
