Fever vs. Sky Odds
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -112 | 169.5 -110o / -110u | -118 |
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -108 | 169.5 -110o / -110u | -104 |
It feels like just about every week in the W features a game between the Fever and Sky, but that’s often the case in a league where 12 teams play a 40-game schedule.
Nonetheless, WNBA fans won’t mind another matchup between Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, two of the most polarizing characters in women’s professional sports.
Chicago lost each of the two meetings this season, but this time, the venue will switch to Wintrust Arena in front of its home fans.
It should be an electric atmosphere, and I’m not entirely surprised that the bookmakers have Chicago as a favorite (-1).
While there’s a sense that Chicago might be due for a win in this series, I have more confidence we’ll see another standout performance from Resse in the contest.
Indiana Fever
The Fever had to weather a difficult start to their campaign after an 0-5 start. It was 1-8 through nine games and then 3-10 after playing 13.
While Clark and the Fever drew plenty of criticism for starting poorly, the reality is they faced a brutal schedule. Nine of their first 13 games were against four teams (Sun, Liberty, Storm and Aces) in the league's top half, with a combined win-loss record of 43-17.
But now the schedule has broken more favorably for Indiana, which is currently on a four-game winning streak with victories over Atlanta (two), Chicago and Washington. Those three teams have a combined record of 13-17.
Indiana’s recent run puts it eighth in the league with a 7-10 record. Based on its position in the standings, the Fever would get the last playoff spot if the season ended today.
However, we still have to be mindful that the schedule has been unbalanced thus far, with some teams having played as many as 17 games while others have played just 14.
Indiana’s difficult schedule resulted in some lopsided games, which helps to explain why it has the league's worst Defensive Rating (109.7).
Offensively, Indiana has been one of the better teams, ranking fifth with a 100.1 rating.
Chicago Sky
Despite having the ninth-best record at 5-9, the Sky rank sixth in Net Rating with a -1.5 value. Chicago is one of five teams with a Defensive Rating (99.3) in the double digits. Its Defensive Rrating is essentially four points better than last season's (103.4).
The Sky's biggest problem is on the offensive end of the court, where its 97.8 rating puts it ninth in the league.
Chicago does get plenty of scoring chances, as it ranks second in field goal attempts with 70.7 per game. However, there’s a bit of an imbalance in terms of shot selection, as 79.9% of their attempts are 2-point shots.
Chicago is a poor perimeter shooting team, ranking 10th in 3-point percentage at 30.7%. Hence, the Sky tend to lack confidence from beyond the arc, as they attempt the fewest 3-pointers in the league at 14.2 per game.
As a result, it’s difficult for Chicago to mount a comeback in games when it falls behind early. To have a chance, Chicago almost has to play a perfect defensive game, which leaves minimal margin for error.
Fever vs. Sky
Betting Pick & Prediction
While Indiana is the better team in this matchup, I expect Chicago to get a boost from its home fans. That home crowd is enough to give me some concern about backing the Fever as short underdogs.
Reese is undoubtedly a player who can draw some energy from the boisterous environment, and she’ll likely do everything to avoid a 0-3 start in her WNBA career against Clark.
One thing Reese certainly isn’t short on is effort. She ranks second in rebounds with 10.8 per game. While Chicago has struggled to score points, Reese has played a massive role in creating extra scoring chances. Despite being a rookie, she leads the league with an average of 4.9 offensive rebounds.
Indiana is the second-worst rebounding team in the W, averaging 32.8 per contest. Reese racked up 13 boards in both games in the two previous meetings.
I’d expect another significant effort from Reese, who is coming off an 18-rebound performance in her last outing against the Wings on Thursday.
Her rebounding prop is available at 10.5 at FanDuel, and that number feels short despite the juice with odds at -138.
However, there’s still value even at that price because Reese’s ability to rebound on the offensive end will be paramount for Chicago to keep pace with the Fever at home.
Pick: Angel Reese Over 10.5 Rebounds (-138)
