Sean Koerner, our Director of Predictive Analytics, highlights his top five WNBA props to target on PrizePicks this Friday. He has a 31-9 record on picks he's written about so far this season.
Picks are listed below in order of his confidence, with a 10-rating being the highest. Note that Sean likes to play the following picks as a five-pack, then two- to three-packs based on the props he likes the most, hence why he provides confidence ratings.
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Friday WNBA Picks
Skylar Diggins-Smith Over 11.5 Points
The Mercury face a tough test against the Sun and their elite defense. However, the Sun are coming off back-to-back games against the Aces and played on Thursday night. Therefore, I'm expecting the Sun to come out a bit flat and overlook a Mercury team that has lost six straight games.
I expect Diggins-Smith to take advantage of a tired Sun team and project her closer to 15.5 points.
Confidence Rating: 9 out of 10
Brianna Turner Over 6.5 Reb
Turner has cleared this number in four of the past five games and is a lock to play 32-35 minutes against a tired Sun team.
I'm projecting her closer to 7.5 rebounds.
Confidence Rating: 8 out of 10
Crystal Dangerfield Under 4.5 Reb
Dangerfield replaced Sami Whitcomb in the starting lineup last game and played a season-high 34 minutes. Considering the Liberty snapped a seven-loss streak, I'm anticipating Dangerfield will stay in the starting lineup and play around 30 minutes.
Dangerfield has never really been a good rebounder, a lot of which has to do with her 5-foot-5 frame. It usually requires quite a bit of luck for her to clear this number. I'm projecting her closer to three rebounds.
Confidence Rating: 7 out of 10
Mercedes Russell Under 5.5 Reb
Russell will be making her season debut on Friday night, which is ideal timing considering Ezi Magbegor will be missing her second straight game due to COVID-19 protocols. I expect Russell to get eased into action and play only 15-20 minutes.
The Wings are a smaller team, so the Storm should be able to get away with using Stewart in the 5 a bit more. I'm projecting Russell closer to four rebounds.
Confidence Rating: 7 out of 10
Breanna Stewart Over 18.5 Points
The Storm will lean on Stewart with Sue Bird and Magbegor missing their second straight game. Dallas is a smaller team and is very vulnerable on shots less than five feet (67.4% allowed is second-worst rate in the league).
I'm expecting Stewart to play center quite a bit and have a ton of good looks inside of five feet. I'm projecting her closer to 20 points.
Confidence Rating: 6 out of 10
