The Atlanta Dream (15-25 this season) travel to the Big Apple to face the No. 1 seed New York Liberty (32-8) in the very first game of what should be an incredible 2024 WNBA playoffs. Liberty vs. Dream tips off at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday on ESPN and is streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
The Liberty are consensus 12-point favorites over the Dream (Liberty -12), with the over/under currently set at 156.5 points. Breanna Stewart, Sabrina Ionescu and the Liberty are -800 favorites on the moneyline, while Rhyne Howard and the Dream are +550 to pull off the road upset in Game 1.
Speaking of Howard, she features prominently in my Dream vs. Liberty predictions and WNBA picks for Saturday. Let's get to my preview of this first round Game 1.
Dream at Liberty Odds, Picks, Prediction
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+12 -115 | 156.5 -110 / -110 | +550 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-12 -105 | 156.5 -110 / -110 | -800 |
- Dream vs. Liberty spread: Liberty -12
- Dream vs. Liberty over/under: 156.5 points
- Dream vs. Liberty moneyline: Liberty -800, Dream +550
- Dream vs. Liberty picks: Rhyne Howard player props
My Liberty vs. Dream best bets for Game 1 are on Rhyne Howard to go over her rebound total prop and over her rebounds+assists prop. Be sure to get find the best lines for all your bets with our live WNBA odds page.
Spread
I don't have a bet on the Liberty vs. Dream spread, as New York opened as 11.5-point favorites and have now been bet up to -12 or even -12.5 at some books.
Over/Under
New York's defense has been well-chronicled, which explains why this game has the lowest total on the board at 156. However, I don't have a bet on the total.
Moneyline
I don't have a bet on the moneyline with the Liberty big -800 favorites to win Game 1.
Prediction
New York has primarily dominated Atlanta this season by slowing down Rhyne Howard, the Dream's best player. The Liberty boasts one of the best defenses in the league, and if Howard continues to struggle, she'll need to find other ways to help her team.
That's why I'm betting Howard props for my pick today.
Pick: Rhyne Howard over 6.5 rebounds+assists
Rhyne Howard over 3.5 rebounds
Atlanta Dream: 3-Pointers A Weak Spot
Atlanta faces a big disadvantage against New York because of its inability to hit 3-pointers. The Dream ranked 10th in 3-point field goals during the regular season, averaging six per game.
For a team that shoots as poorly as the Dream does on the perimeter, it's a bit surprising that it attempted more 3-pointers than the Sky, Wings and Sun, three teams that all shot for a better percentage from beyond the arc.
As a result, if the Dream falls behind early, it tends to struggle to make up large deficits. Atlanta's offense plummeted down the stretch, finishing last in efficiency with 96.6 points per 100 possessions.
There are too many empty offensive possessions for this Atlanta team that shot a league-worst 40.8% from the floor.
What's most disappointing about Atlanta is it doesn't do enough of the little things to give itself a chance to overcome its scoring woes. It played at the second slowest tempo, ranked 10th in fastbreak points and 11th in points off turnovers.
You almost get the sense that Atlanta's success has less to do with its own gameplay than with its opponents having a bad shooting night.
New York Liberty: Hit The Dream Where Their Game Hurts
Given how the Liberty approached its final game of the regular season, there's not much to take away from the loss. New York would've decided ahead of time to limit its starters' minutes and that an Atlanta victory would mean the two teams would face one another three days later in the playoffs.
Hence, it would've been foolish for Liberty to divulge any secrets about its approach in a series with the Dream.
However, the reality is that New York doesn't have to search too long for answers on how to beat Atlanta.
New York succeeds in outpacing teams on both sides of the court because of its efficiency. It's the only team that finished the regular season with a double-digit Net Rating (+11.7).
You rarely see this Liberty take bad shots. It often passes up good shots for even better ones while finishing second in assists with 22.8 per game. New York is also an excellent rebounding team (tied for first—36.6), which helps to give it extra possessions.
Its 29 3-point attempts per game were almost 2.5 more than any other team.
Therefore, New York, already a decent 3-point shooting team, can get more bites at the apple from beyond the arc. That recipe can only lead to heartache if you're an Atlanta Dream fan.
New York has often done a tremendous job stymying Howard, Atlanta's best player. She averaged 12 points against the Liberty this season and 14.2 points in the last six meetings.
The Liberty plays with three players on the frontcourt, which means it can use a taller player to defend Howard, a bigger guard at 6-foot-2.
Howard does have a tendency to take some bad shots. She's shooting 37.1% from the floor, and her 8.1 3-pointers per game are a bit high for a player averaging 32.9% from distance.
Should she continue to struggle, she'll need to be effective in other ways to help her team win.
One angle that's been somewhat overlooked is her ability to fill out the scoresheet with rebounds and assists. Howard's rebound+assists prop is 6.5, noticeably below her average (7.5) and median (7.0) this season.
Moreover, she's exceeded that prop number in five of her last six meetings against New York, including on Thursday when she only played 25 minutes, nine her season average of 33.9.
We can also isolate her rebounding prop, which is available at 3.5.
She's averaging 4.4 rebounds per game this season, slightly lower than her average of 4.5 boards in the last six meetings against New York.
While it's easy to simply focus on how Howard's scoring will impact the game, if her offensive struggles continue, look for her to contribute in other ways.
Liberty vs. Dream Pick: Rhyne Howard over 6.5 rebounds+assists
Rhyne Howard over 3.5 rebounds
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Liberty vs. Dream | Sunday, September 22 |
| Start Time: | 1 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
Liberty vs. Dream is scheduled for 1 p.m. ET live from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York on Sunday. The game is airing on TV on ESPN and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
