On Sunday afternoon, the W’s hottest team, Minnesota, hosts the Phoenix Mercury in the first game of the playoffs.
Surprisingly, the biggest storyline entering this series is not the Lynx’s recent post-break play but rather the fact that this could be the last few games we see from Diana Taurasi, the greatest woman’s basketball player ever.
Can Phoenix rally around each other and put together a potential title run for Taurasi, or will the Lynx keep up their incredible play on both ends of the floor?
Find our Mercury vs. Lynx picks, odds, and predictions for Game 1 of the first round of the WNBA Playoffs below!
Phoenix Mercury vs. Minnesota Lynx Prediction
These teams have faced each other four times this season.
As expected, Minnesota has dominated, winning three of the four matchups by an average of 17 points in those wins. I think the Lynx are just too much for Phoenix and I can see this game getting out of hand fairly quickly.
Lynx vs. Mercury Pick:Â Lynx -9.5 (-110, Caesars)Â
Mercury vs. Lynx Odds
| Mercury Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | +430 |
| Lynx Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -110 | 158.5 -110o / -110u | -600 |
- Mercury vs. Lynx point spread: Mercury +9.5, Lynx -9.5
- Mercury vs. Lynx over/under: 158.5 total points scored (-110o / -110u)
- Mercury vs. Lynx moneylines: Mercury: +430, Lynx -600
Phoenix Mercury: Improved, But Limited
Phoenix had one of the most significant year-over-year improvements, stringing together ten more wins this season than in 2023.
Signing Kahleah Copper and Natasha Cloud to join the talented tandem of Brittney Griner and Taurasi proved to be two of the better off-season additions.
Still, this Mercury unit has glaring weaknesses that have limited their ability to be a top-tier team.
For one, they have been atrocious on the glass this season, ranking dead-last in rebounding percentage.
Rebounding has been the determinant factor in virtually all of the Mercury’s close games. In fact, of their 21 losses, they have only won the rebounding battle twice.
Additionally, Phoenix’s perimeter defense has been non-existent, allowing opponents to take the most 3-pointers of any team in the W.
If a team is going to surrender many attempts from behind the arc, it better have an elite interior defense.
Unfortunately, that has also not been the case, as the Mercury has allowed opponents to score the most second-chance points.
Minnesota Lynx: A Superior Second Half
It is in no way an exaggeration to say that the Lynx have been the best post-All-Star-break team in the W.
The Lynx had won 13 of their past 14 games before punting their regular season finale to avoid any untimely injuries; they had already locked up the No. 2 seed and had nothing to gain and a lot to lose.
In those 14 games, Minnesota had the best record (13-1), the highest field goal percentage (47.8%), and the second-highest 3-point percentage (37.8%). It also committed the fourth-fewest turnovers per game while holding opponents to the third-lowest effective field goal percentage (47.6%).
While the Lynx’s improved offensive execution and defensive effort have been massive contributors to their post-break surge, their improved rebounding is the most significant difference from the beginning of the season until now.
Before the Olympics and All-Star break, the Lynx ranked 11th (out of 12 teams) in rebounding percentage, with only a 0.1% advantage over last place.
However, during that 14-game stretch, Minnesota had the sixth-highest rebounding percentage in the W, which is not elite by any stretch of the imagination but is serviceable given this team's other talents.
Mercury vs. Lynx: Advantage on the Perimeter
Betting Pick & Prediction
The Lynx had a net rating of +15.3 and a true shooting percentage of 55.4%, boasting a 44/41/75 split in those four games.
Minnesota’s 41% mark from 3-point land is eye-popping, especially on a high volume. In fact, the Lynx shot just shy of 30 3-pointers per game during its regular-season matchups against the Mercury.
And that is just the problem for Phoenix: it can’t defend the 3-point line or rebound the ball.
The Lynx have been the best 3-point shooting team in the W all season, and they should light up this poor Mercury perimeter defense.
Lynx vs. Mercury Pick:Â Lynx -9.5 (-110, Caesars)Â
How to Watch Mercury vs. Lynx
| Mercury vs. Lynx | Sunday, September 22 |
| Start Time: | 5 p.m. ET |
| TVÂ /Â Streaming: | ESPN |
| Location: | Target Center, Minneapolis, Minnesota |
Lynx vs. Mercury is scheduled for 5 p.m. ET live from Target Center in Minneapolis, Minnesota on Sunday. Game one of the first-round WNBA playoff matchup between the Phoenix Mercury and Napheesa Collier and the Minnesota Lynx is on ESPN.
