The Las Vegas Aces begin their quest to become the first team to three-peat by taking on the Seattle Storm, who they coincidentally eliminated from the playoffs in 2022 — the last time Seattle reached the postseason.
The Aces may be the fourth seed, but they're a favorite to not only win this series, but the championship. In their way is a Storm team that remade itself over the offseason and played consistent basketball throughout the summer, featuring one of the league's better defenses.
So let's get started! Check out my Storm vs Aces prediction for Game 1 of the First Round of the WNBA Playoffs.
Seattle Storm vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction
The Aces finished the season playing some of their best basketball, not just winning games but beating teams — including some who are in the playoffs — by comfortable margins.
If they're indeed peaking at the right time, the Storm will be in for a substantial challenge as they will either be without leading scorer Jewell Loyd or working her back into the lineup as she recovers from a knee injury.
Either way, with this game being in Vegas, odds of the home team running away with the series opener are good.
Aces vs. Storm Pick: Aces -7.5 (-110)
Storm vs. Aces Odds
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 162.5 -112 / -108 | +300 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 162.5 -112 / -108 | -380 |
- Storm vs. Aces point spread: Storm +7.5, Aces -7.5
- Storm vs. Aces over/under: 162.5 total points scored
- Storm vs. Aces moneylines: Storm +300, Aces -380
Seattle Storm: Has Loyd Fully Recovered?
The Storm are back in the postseason after a one-year hiatus and their reward for doing so is a first-round matchup with the back-to-back defending champion Aces, who won three out the four meetings between the teams including a game in Seattle less than one week ago.
The good news for the Storm is that playoffs are a new season, meaning records and whatever happened prior to tip don't have to mean anything.
One thing that would help is the return of star Jewell Loyd not only from injury, but to the form she displayed last season and in spurts this year. If she is recovered from a knee injury that has kept her out since September 13 the Storm will have their leading scorer at 19.7 points per game. Her performances in three games against the Aces this year were a mixed bag, with Loyd dropping 28 points in July but mustering just 10 total points in a pair of June losses.
Seattle's second-leading scorer, Nneka Ogwumike, finished the season strong, with efforts of 17, 19 and 23 points over her final three games. On the season she averaged 7.6 rebounds, while also contributing more than two assists per game. The team's leader in the latter category was Skylar Diggins-Smith, who dished out 6.4 assists per game to go along with 15.1 points.
Ezi Magbegor and Gabby Williams are the team's other double-digit scorers, with Magbegor leading the team in rebounds at 8.0 per game. She also blocks more than two shots per contest, and her inside presence will be big for a team that had the fourth-best defensive efficiency rating in the league while playing at the third-fastest pace.
Las Vegas Aces: Continue Taking Care of the Ball
Last season the Aces became the first team since the L.A. Sparks in 2002 to win back-to-back championships. Their quest to become the first team to ever three-peat begins with them facing the team they eliminated from semifinals in the '22 postseason.
Of course the conversation about the Aces begins with former and likely future league MVP A'ja Wilson, who took her game to another level this season. She averaged 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game, becoming the first player in league history to score 1,000 points in a season (she finished with 1,021) while also setting a new mark for rebounds at 451. Her 98 blocks were a career-high and also led the W, and she finished the regular season strong with averages of 27.9 points, 12.4 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game over her final seven.
Wilson scored at least 20 points in all but three games this season, which takes pressure off her teammates to carry the load. That's not say someone like Kelsey Plum, who averaged 17.8 points per game this season, is incapable of having a big game or that Jackie Young, who averaged 15.8, isn't a reliable offensive option. Just, the team's second and third-leading scorers play more of a secondary scoring role while dishing out 4.2 and 5.3 assists per game, respectively.
With Wilson handling much of the scoring down low Plum and Young do much of their damage from deep, with the two combining to average nearly five three point makes per game on 14 attempts.
Tiffany Hayes and Chelsea Gray are also valuable contributors, with them all helping push the Aces to having the second-best offensive rating in the W while averaging a league-high 86.4 points per game. As a team the Aces assist on a lower percentage of their makes, but take care of the basketball and have the league's best assist-to-turnover ratio.
Storm vs. Aces: Las Vegas With The Game 1 Advantage
Betting Pick & Prediction
The playoffs offer a fresh slate for all teams and plenty of appealing betting options. Nothing is guaranteed, but A'ja Wilson to score 20+ points at -450 seems like about as sure of a thing as you can get. If you are seeking slightly better odds, two of the Aces' three wins over the Storm were of double-digits and the Aces finished the season with five straight wins by an average of 11 points, so they seem to be peaking at a time when the Storm are either going to be without their leading scorer or trying to work her back into the lineup after an injury.
Aces vs. Storm Pick: Aces -7.5 (-110)
How to Watch Storm vs. Aces
| Storm vs. Aces | Sunday, September 122 |
| Start Time: | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN |
| Location: | Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, Nevada |
Aces vs. Storm is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET live from Michelob ULTRA Arena in Paradise, Nevada on Sunday. This marquee WNBA matchup between the defending champion Aces and Nneka Ogwumike and the Storm is on ESPN.
