Game 1 was an ass whooping.
But luckily for the Indiana Fever, they have another shot at making their… you know… die hard fans proud with a win an extending this to a do or die Game 3, which would be contested at home.
Unfortunately for them, they'll have to — again — try to overcome the WNBA's best defense, the Sun, who are in their Connecticut home a second straight time.
Connecticut Sun vs. Indiana Fever Prediction
I'll expand on this thought, but my knee-jerk reaction following Game 1 and reevaluating how it unfolded is to say the Connecticut Sun aren't as potent offensively, and the Indiana Fever are slightly less worse from the field. I still like the Sun to win Game 2, but I'll take a money/total points parlay — Sun to win and under 163.5 points at +155.
Fever vs. Sun Pick: Sun ML + Under 163.5
Fever vs. Sun Odds
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+6 -110 | 163.5 -114 / -108 | +225 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-6 -110 | 163.5 -114 / -108 | -275 |
- Fever vs. Sun point spread: Fever +6, Sun -6
- Fever vs. Sun over/under: 163.5 total points scored
- Fever vs. Sun moneylines: Fever +225, Sun -275
- Fever vs. Sun picks: Sun ML, Under 163.5
Indiana Fever: More Focus Will Remain On Caitlin Clark
Game 1 sucked, but it's reasonable to think the Indiana Fever will make progress offensively given the open looks they didn't cash in on Sunday.
But there aren't any guarantees. The offense was generally fine until late in the third quarter, where the Fever couldn't keep up with a Marina Mabrey flurry that blew open the game, and from there, there was no recovery.
Of course, a lot of the focus has and will be on Caitlin Clark, who debuted with a playoff dud. She netted 11 points and shot just 4-for-17 from the field and 2-for-13 from three.
A decent chunk of these were open looks that Clark may convert in Game 2. But even if she does, the team otherwise shot 4-for-15 from three — with Kelsey Mitchell going 2-for-10 from deep among those other looks.
Just because the Sun beat them down 93-69 doesn't mean the offense was a fluke either. Statistically, the Sun hit more shots than they often do, hitting 49 percent from the field and 9-of-18 from three for an even 50 percent, sure, but also, the Fever are and have been one of the league's worst defenses this season.
Alyssa Thomas walked into mid-range jumper after mid-range jumper. Mabrey had 27 points off the bench — a WNBA Playoff Record — and the only Fever player you feel encouraged about after Game 1 — maybe other than Mitchell — was Aaliyah Boston, who surprisingly was able to get hers against an extremely physical Sun defense.
Boston had 17 points, 11 rebounds, two blocks and shot 8-for-14 in her post-season debut. Will she be able to replicate that performance? She otherwise averaged 9.5 points against the Sun this season on 41 percent shooting and eight rebounds per contest. Even so, those numbers are slightly inflated by a 14-12 showing on 5-for-11 shooting in June. That aside, she hadn't exceeded 10 points or eight rebounds until the post-season.
Connecticut Sun: Who Will Be The Biggest Offensive Factor?
The Sun defended like we expected for the most part. The Fever were just missing shots early on and, eventually, their progression — positive regression, as the podcasters say — never came.
But because the Sun are better, at home, and are more consistent when at home, you'd think they'd have more to carry over from this contest.
The aforementioned Thomas decimated the Fever defense with middy after middy, many of which came in the first half, and ended the day with 12 points, 13 rebounds and shot 6-of-10 before missing her last five.
DeWanna Bonner didn't have much resistance getting to her sweet spots either, torching Indy with 22 points on 7-of-11 shooting, nearly half of which came in the first quarter.
Will Connecticut shoot 50 percent from three and nearly 50 percent from the field again? Ok, maybe not, but will it be because the Fever suddenly become a good defensive team? No, probably not. The one thing that might not replicate itself is Mabrey's 27 — 20 of them in less than 16 second-half minutes. But even then, Brionna Jones wasn't much of a Game 1 factor on offense, and that could change if the Fever are forced to guard Bonner and DiJonai Carrington higher up on the floor.
Fever vs. Sun: Connecticut's Offense May Take A Step Back
I think the Sun offense takes a slight hit. They scored 90 in back-to-back games just once this season, and those were against the Washington Mystics and Seattle Storm. Maybe they do it again? But I doubt it. Four of the Sun's 10 highest-scoring performances have been against the Fever (93, 92, 89, 88) but only one after June, which was Sunday. As for Indiana, I was on their total team under 79.5 in Game 1, and might run it back at 78.5, but I'm lobbing the below bet as my favorite because of the +155 number — it's worth a little something — and I think CT closes it out.
For more from me and my colleagues on this one, check out our best bets file Wednesday morning.
Sun vs. Fever Pick: Sun ML/Under 163.5 +155 on FanDuel
How to Watch Game 2 of Fever vs. Sun
| Fever vs. Sun | Wednesday, September 25 |
| Start Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Mohegan Sun Arena, Montville, Connecticut |
Sun vs. Fever is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET live from Mohegan Sun Arena in Montville, Connecticut on Wednesday. The game is airing on TV on ESPN and streaming live on ESPN+ and YouTube TV.
