Now this is going to be the fun part of the eventual documentary.
Where the young standout coming into her own in the WNBA is face-to-face with the biggest test of her early career.
Where after an uneasy start to her 2024, really showed more glimpses of putting it altogether — perhaps showing us more of what's to come.
And not only that, she'll get to face her rival in Round 1.
That's right, DiJonai Carrington has finally arrived. And only, Caitlin Clark stands in her way. OK, fine — let's be serious.
Fever Rising
The Fever went 1-3 against the Sun this season, but that one win was in August, and it was the only time these two faced off after June.
The Fever managed to go 9-4 in 13 games following the Olympic break before dropping their season finale, which had no impact on their standing anyway.
In that 13-game run, Clark averaged 24.3 points, 8.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds, and shot about 44/36/93. More on Clark shortly…under-discussed has been Kelsey Mitchell, who averaged 24.8 points on 50/45/87 shooting in the last month of the season before the meaningless finale. It's worth noting that she dropped 23 points on an efficient 8-for-14 (4-for-7 from three) in an 84-80 win over the Sun at home on August 28 as Connecticut emerged from the break in uneven fashion.
Mitchell was in the midst of a stretch where she netted 20 or more points in 12 of 13 games, which obviously coincides with the late-season Fever success.
On the Fever front, it's also worth noting that Aaliyah Boston recorded 13.8 points, 9.6 boards and 4.2 assists in the same stretch, converting over 51 percent from the field.
Clash of Styles
These teams couldn't be any more different.The Sun are gonna try to f… ahem… rough the Fever up, so how this series is officiated will be important.
They'll also lean heavily on six players: Carrington, Thomas, Tyasha Harris, DeWanna Bonner, Brionna Jones and Marina Mabrey, all of whom logged 27 plus minutes, and no one else above 16.3.
If they're allowed to be phyiscal, it'll leave an imprint of how this unfolds, and will be indicative of how forceful the starting Carrington-Harris-Bonner-Thomas-Jones unit could be with the Fever.
But if the Sun aren't able to be but so physical, the Fever will run their asses up and down the floor, attempting to increase the speed of the game as Clark runs the offense in transition.
The Sun had an elite defense all season, and generally are No. 1 or No. 2 in major metrics across the board.
The allowed the fewest points per 100 possessions (96.4).They're the second-best at guarding the three (teams shot 31.3 percent from deep against them — only Lynx better, 30 percent).
The Sun had the second-best net rating in the WNBA (+8.6) and was one of just five teams to have a positive net. The Fever were sixth at -3.4.
The Sun forced the most fouls in the W per 100 possessions at 23.8, while the Fever forced the third-fewest at 21.4. This is important given the difference in pace, where the Sun's methodical 75.8 is the league's slowest compared to the Fever's 79.8 second fastest in the W.
And because the Sun don't generate a ton of possessions and drag out offense more than other teams, it could make Fever turnovers more costly.
Heading into the final game of the season, Clark averaged 5.6 per game for the season, 2.0 more than anyone else (Thomas second at 3.6).
The Sun forced the most turnovers per game per 100 possessions (19.6). The Fever force a league-low 14.5 per 100.
But along with a clash in styles, there's a clash in performance.
The Sun was 18-6 before the Olympic break and went 10-6 to end the year, losing six games in half the time after the rest period than they did beforehand.
Meanwhile, the Fever went 9-4 up until the finale after an 11-15 start to the season.
(There's probably a half-decent Fever being hotter than the Sun pun in here somewhere, but it's not worth it.)
Betting the Fever vs. Sun Series
Generally, I believe in young teams getting their ass whooped before potentially experiencing greatness.
In the W, it's a tougher rule to subscribe to because there aren't any seven-game series.
Candace Parker won MVP and Rookie of the Year in 2008 and — with her and Lisa Leslie, to be fair — the No. 3 seed Los Angeles Sparks beat the No. 2 seed Seattle Storm, led by Lauren Jackson, 2-1 in the playoffs.
They then lost to eventual Western Conference Champion San Antonio Silver Stars 2-1 in the West Finals. They had two other WCF trips before finally winning a title with Parker in 2016.
Another all-time talent, A'ja Wilson, joined the Las Vegas Aces in 2018 as the No. 1 overall pick. They didn't even make the 2018 playoffs, though they've been to at least the conference finals every year since 2019, losing in the 2020 Finals and winning each of the last two in 2022 and 2023, respectively.
Breanna Stewart and the Seattle Storm were bounced on a one-and-done playoff game with the Atlanta Dream, but they won the title two seasons later.
Of note: The Fever, as an organization, haven't made the playoffs since 2016 — Stephanie White, current Sun head coach, actually led them there.
Clark, Mitchell, Boston, NaLyssa Smith, and Lexie Hull have never played in a playoff game.
Temi Fagbenle won a title with the 2017 Minnesota Lynx but played four minutes in the title run. She played two more playoff games with the Lynx in two subsequent seasons, so she's logged 44 playoff minutes in four games in her career. Katie Lou Samuelson has three playoff outings to her name with 39 total minutes, the last was a start for the 2021 Storm. And Erica Wheeler started for the Fever in their 2016 playoff outing, and hasn't been back since.
The Sun have been a playoff team every year since 2017, they've been top three in the East and have had 21 or more wins all but once across the this stretch, they've won at least one series all but once since 2019 and they have two finals losses.
Thomas has been there since 2014, Jones since 2019, Bonner since 2020, and Carrington since 2021. Their core has been mostly constant.
It's two completely opposites meeting to do battle — but it's, at most, a three-game series — so even undertakings that feel unprecedented need to be considered when a generational talent is involved.All this said and rambling done, here's what I'm rolling with.
Pick: Connecticut Sun G1/Series (-140 on FanDuel).
The Sun can sweep, but if the Fever split in Connecticut, I don't think the Fever winning at home is just a guarantee. The Sun's defense travels — they won in Minnesota to close out Round 1 and beat the Liberty in Brooklyn to begin Round 2 just last season.
But I'll add that there are a couple correct series looks I believe are a longshot worthy look, if nothing else, both on FanDuel.
- Longshot 1: G1 CON, G2 IND, G3 CON (+600)
- Longshot 2: G1 IND, G2 CON, G3 IND (+700)
Indiana is the scariest underdog in Game 1, regardless of the history going up against them. They have a transcendent player, so they might be able to do transcendent things sooner than expected.
But overall, I don't think this is the year, or the match-up.
