The back-to-back defending champion Aces find themselves trailing in a playoff series for the first time since the 2022 semifinals against the Seattle Storm, when they lost the first game before winning the next three.
This time is different, however, as they are not the higher-seeded team and aren't favored to get past their opponent, the top-seeded New York Liberty.
The home team held serve in the first game of the series, making half of their shots, hammering the glass and never trailing, pushing their lead to the point where things were never really close in the fourth quarter.
The Liberty's ideal Game 1 was the opposite for the Aces, who can look at the series and say with certainty they can play much better.
Which leads us to my Aces vs. Liberty prediction for Game 2.
Las Vegas Aces Game 2 Odds vs. Liberty
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 164 -110 / -110 | +145 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 164 -110 / -110 | -175 |
- Liberty vs. Aces spread: Liberty -3.5
- Liberty vs. Aces over/under: 164 points
- Liberty vs. Aces moneyline: Aces +138, Liberty-170
Why the Las Vegas Aces Can Cover in Game 2
No matter who they are playing, the Aces always have the best player on the floor in A'ja Wilson. The league MVP, who put together a historic season, had a Game 1 performance that would be good for most players, but was sub-par for her — 21 points, six rebounds, five assists and two blocks. Should she come closer to her regular season numbers of nearly 27 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks per game — or do even better — everything else will fall into place.
In Game 1, both Kelsey Plum and Jackie Young played well enough to complement Wilson, and repeat performances, be it Plum's 24 points with four 3s or Young's 17 points, would certainly be enough to at least keep this close.
“It's a loss, that’s the only thing I see,” Plum told the media afterward Game 1. “A lot of things I can do better individually and help my teammates collectively.”
When playing a team like the Liberty, it takes a team. The Aces just happen to be a bit top heavy.
All season long, the Aces have relied on their stars, with just Wilson, Plum and Young averaging in double figures. Others, like Tiffany Hayes, Chelsea Gray and Alysha Clark, have proven capable of contributing, but are more the gravy to the former trio's mashed potatoes.
More often than not, that has been enough to not only keep games close, but also win. Shooting better from 3, where the Aces went just 7-of-25, and doing better on the boards, where they were out-rebounded by nine and collected just two offensive rebounds, would be most helpful.
After all, while it would be easy to say it's about playing better defense, that's easier said than done against the W's top offensive team by rating and second-best in points per game, especially when the Aces aren't exactly known for their defense. So yes, forcing more misses and turnovers would be good, but that's not likely going to be how Vegas gets the job done.
Aces vs. Liberty Betting Pick & Prediction
Just two times all season have the Aces lost consecutive games. That ability to bounce back bodes well for them, though they are now 0-4 against the Liberty this season. One of those losses came without Wilson, but that means she was there for the other three.
At any rate, in what was an off game for the Aces, they still scored 77 points, so with just a bit better shooting, they should find themselves in the 80s or higher. Given they aren't likely to slow the Liberty down, this one could light up the scoreboard and Wilson, who only attempted four free throws in the opener, will get to the line more and put the ball in the basket in the manner we've grown to expect.
Pick: Over 164 Points (-108 on FanDuel) | A'ja Wilson to Score 25+ Points
How to Watch Liberty vs. Aces Game 2
| Aces vs. Liberty | Tuesday, October 1 |
| Start Time: | 7:39 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN 2 / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
