The Aces have only themselves to blame for a 0-2 start in the WNBA semifinals against the New York Liberty. Since the latter part of the season, the Aces rediscovered their defensive pedigree by slowing down the tempo of their games.
However, for whatever reason, Las Vegas has reverted to a fast-paced style, which only exposes its defensive naiveté against a quality team like New York.
Despite outshooting New York 36-27 from the perimeter, it wasn't enough to win Game 2.
The Aces have struggled to limit New York's efficiency, and with the series shifting to Las Vegas, they'll hope the venue change will be enough to propel them to a much-need victory.
Read further for my Aces vs. Liberty predictions.
Las Vegas Game 3 Odds vs. New York Liberty
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -112 | 166 -108o / -112u | +130 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -108 | 166 -108o / -112u | -155 |
- Liberty vs. Aces spread: Aces -3 (-108), Liberty +3 (-112)
- Liberty vs. Aces over/under: 166 points
- Liberty vs. Aces moneyline: Aces +130, Liberty -155
Why The Las Vegas Aces Can Cover In Game 3
After yet another loss to the Liberty this season (0-5 overall), Aces head coach Becky Hammon was very candid in her postgame interview about what has changed with the Liberty from a year ago.
"They've been the best team this year," Hammon told reporters. "Because of their habits, their edge that they've had the entire year, their incredible attention to detail. Quite frankly, we haven't had the edge."
Hammon went on to discuss the difficult challenge her team is facing by trying to win a third straight title.
"This is why three-peating is hard. The whole league has been pissed off for the last eight months — my players are in commercials and this and that. And being celebrities. And you get distracted. That's why it's hard. Human nature is distracting."
While Hammon's comment about human nature is incredibly insightful, it can also work against New York since it has a 2-0 lead in the series.
After all, you can be sure that reporters informed the Liberty players that WNBA teams are a perfect 18-0 in a best-of-five series after taking a 2-0 lead.
One thing the Liberty will have to contend with is dealing with a hostile crowd on the road. New York benefited from a bench that outscored the Aces 30-21 in Brooklyn. Bench players tend to play better at home because it's much easier to get into the flow of the game with the crowd behind them.
If the Aces can get a bit more from their bench at Michelob ULTRA Arena, they'll have a much better chance of finding their way back into this series.
Liberty vs. Aces
Betting Pick & Prediction
The best way to attack this game from a Las Vegas perspective is to target the Aces to start fast in the first quarter. Las Vegas showed some fight in Game 2, jumping out to a 27-22 first-quarter lead.
We've also seen a willingness by both teams to play at a fast pace. A combined total of 49 points were scored in the first quarter of both games in the series.
A FanDuel same-game first-quarter parlay with the Aces moneyline and a total of over 41.5 points would give us a decent return with +210 odds.
One Aces player who should benefit from the home crowd is Jackie Young. While her scoring (17.6 to 15.8) and field goal percentage (52.3% to 43%) were down this season, she filled out the rest of the stats sheet by posting career-highs in rebounding (4.4) and assists (5.3).
At home, she averaged 4.7 rebounds and 5.7 assists compared to 4.1 and 5.0 on the road.
Thus, based on those numbers, she's averaging over 10 rebounds and assists at home, yet FanDuel lists her combo prop at 7.5.
Young has gone over this number in six straight games at home and if the Aces can perform better collectively, she's likely to have a hand in their success.
Pick: Bet # 1 – Same-game parlay (+210) – Aces 1Q ML / 1Q over 41.5 points | Bet # 2 – Jackie Young over 7.5 rebounds + assists (-120)
How to Watch Liberty vs. Aces Game 3
| Aces vs. Liberty | Friday, October 4 |
| Start Time: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN 2 / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Michelob ULTRA Arena, Paradise, Nevada |
