The Las Vegas Aces visit the Chicago Sky for a WNBA Sunday matinee, with the season series tied at one game apiece. Las Vegas comes into the contest off back-to-back losses in a home set against the Minnesota Lynx. As for Chicago, it's also on a two-game losing streak following road defeats in Phoenix and Connecticut.
Although Las Vegas is a much more superior team offensively than Chicago, I'll share which advantage the Sky holds that could allow it to keep pace in potentially a high-scoring affair. Let's get to my Aces vs. Sky predictions for Sunday.
Aces vs Sky Prediction
- Aces vs. Sky Pick: Over 166.5 points | Bet to 168.5
My Aces-Sky pick for Sunday is on the over, with the best line currently available at FanDuel Sportsbook, according to our live WNBA odds page.
The Sky won't be intimidated when they take on the Aces on Sunday afternoon. Chicago's unique advantage on the glass helps make some of its offensive inefficiencies. With a fast pace potentially giving Chicago more scoring opportunities, the over makes a ton of sense despite the early tip-off.
Aces vs Sky Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -112 | 168.5 -112o / -108u | -480 |
| Sky Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -108 | 168.5 -112o / -108u | +350 |
Aces vs Sky Preview, Betting Analysis
After dominating the WNBA's offensive categories for the past two years, it appears the rest of the league has finally caught up with the Aces.
Las Vegas posted a league-best Offensive Rating of 109.6 in 2022 and 113.0 in 2023, but that number is down to 105.6 this season. While it's still good enough for second in the league, the Aces' 4.8 Net Rating is 10.5 points lower than the previous campaign.
As a result, the combination of having an offense that's not quite as productive with a defense that's starting to spring a few leaks has ultimately helped narrow the gap between the Aces and everyone else. However, we may be being a bit harsh on Las Vegas. After all, its field goal percentage (45.3%) is still the league-best—although it's down from 48.6% in 2023.
It's worth noting that only 0.3 points separates the top three teams in field goal percentage compared to a difference of 4.1% in the previous campaign. Therefore, the margin of error for Las Vegas is much slimmer this time, and perhaps last season's offensive dominance was more of an outlier than anything else.
On paper, you'd probably think Chicago shouldn't be able to lay a glove on Las Vegas. The Sky trails the Aces by 8.5 points in Net Rating. However, Chicago averaged 88 points in their two meetings against Vegas.
Although the Sky ranks 10th in field goal percentage (42.4%), it leads the league in field goal attempts with 71.8 per game. That trend held firm as Chicago outshot Las Vegas in both games by a 150-132 margin. Chicago does a tremendous job getting second-chance opportunities by dominating the glass, and it held a 73-61 advantage in rebounds against the Aces.
In each of the past two seasons, the Aces have been the worst team in the league on the offensive glass. Las Vegas has been the worst team on the offensive glass for quite some time after finishing at the bottom of the league with 6.2 per game in 2023. This season, the Aces are last again, and their offensive rebounds have dropped to 5.6.
In comparison, the Sky outrebounds the Aces on the offensive glass by nearly six per game while leading the league with an average of 11.5. Hence, Chicago is well-suited to put up points against Las Vegas, even if it looks like a much more inferior side.
My Aces vs Sky Prediction: Take the Over
Sky vs Aces Best Bet
We should get enough pace in this game for both offenses to have big performances. Las Vegas leads the league in tempo with 82.2 possessions per 40 minutes, and against Chicago this season, that number increases to 83.5.
Because the Sky can sometimes struggle offensively, they benefit from a faster pace against Las Vegas because it's likely to get more scoring opportunities.
When you generally think of an early game, you expect it to be low-scoring. However, according to our Action Labs database, games with an opening total of 166.5 or more points that tip off at noon or earlier are 11-4 (73.3%) to the over.
Thus, games involving teams that fit a particular profile tend to be high-scoring even when there's an early start. And if we adjust our parameters to include only games featuring Chicago or Las Vegas, the over is 4-1 (80%).
This should be an entertaining game with plenty of scoring, and the over is well worth a look at 166.5.
Sky vs Aces Pick: Over 166.5 | Bet to 168.5
Sky vs Aces Betting Trends
- 51% of the bets and 49% of the money are on the Aces to cover the spread.
- 41% of the bets and 83% of the money are on the over.
