The Las Vegas Aces hit the highway for a four-game road trip, beginning with a stop in Connecticut to take on the Sun. Connecticut is catching 1.5 points at home despite having more wins and a better net rating than the Aces.
There's simply something that's not entirely trustworthy about this Sun team, especially when it plays the role of a short underdog.
Below, find my Aces vs. Sun prediction before the matchup tips off at 7:30 p.m. ET on ION.
Aces vs. Sun Prediction
Trading for Marina Mabrey hasn't exactly transformed the Connecticut Sun. Some of the same problems still exist, and the team has even gotten worse defensively. With the Sun hosting the Aces on Friday night, we recommend laying the points with the visitors as short favorites.
Aces vs. Sun Pick: Aces -1.5
Aces vs. Sun Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 165.5 -108o / -112u | -130 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 165.5 -108o / -112u | +106 |
Las Vegas Aces: Putting On a Defensive Masterclass
Topping the 2023 season would always be a difficult challenge for the Las Vegas Aces.
After all, they led the league in offensive and defensive efficiency while boasting an impressive +15.4 net rating.
This season, the Aces have a net rating that's down to +5.8, as other teams around the league have started to have some success in closing the gap. Much of the Aces' struggles were on the defensive end of the floor. They ranked eighth during the first two months with a 102.6 defensive rating.
However, since July, their defensive rating has improved to 98.8—1.1 points higher than the mark in 2023.
Offensively, Las Vegas has stayed ahead of Connecticut during that span and even for the season, scoring at least three more points per 100 possessions.
Connecticut Sun: Offense Has Dipped Since Trade
Connecticut has had a habit of coming up short against Las Vegas. It lost 3-2 to the Aces in the 2020 postseason after taking a 2-1 lead in the series and lost 3-1 to Las Vegas in the 2022 WNBA Finals.
If we look at the last 10 meetings, Connecticut has a 3-7 record.
The window could be closing on the chances of this current group of Connecticut players delivering the franchise's first WNBA title. Connecticut essentially pushed its chips into the middle by acquiring Marina Mabrey via trade from the Chicago Sky.
Yet, after nine games, it's not entirely clear whether the Notre Dame product makes the Sun a whole lot better.
While Mabrey is more known for her scoring prowess, the Sun's offensive rating has surprisingly dropped from 102.5 to 101.4. Defensively, we've seen an even more significant dip, as it's allowing four more points per 100 possessions.
Her perimeter shooting has resulted in only a marginal improvement, with Connecticut increasing its 3-point field goals per game from 5.5 to 6.4. Against the better teams, Connecticut has to work even harder to make up deficits because of its struggles from beyond the arc.
Aces vs. Sun: Ace Is Always High
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's certainly less margin for error when you play the top teams, and Connecticut almost has to play a perfect game since it often gets outshot on the perimeter.
You could argue that there's also more pressure, particularly when Connecticut is in a one-possession game.
Using our Action Labs database, I found that Connecticut is 0-3 against the spread this season as an underdog of three or fewer points. The Aces have dominated this head-to-head series, and I expect Connecticut to face some challenges if forced to play from behind.
Aces vs. Sun Pick: Aces -1.5
Las Vegas Aces Betting Trends
- Aces are 4-1 in their last 5 games.
- Aces are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Aces are 5-10 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Aces' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 9 of Aces' 18 last games at home.
Connecticut Sun Betting Trends
- Sun are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
- Sun are 3-2 in their last 5 games against the spread.
- Sun are 8-8 in their road games against the spread.
- The totals have gone OVER in 2 of Sun' last 5 games.
- The totals have gone OVER in 8 of Sun' 17 last games at home.
