The Liberty sent an emphatic message to the Aces, winning the series opener 87-77. New York's victory was undoubtedly a step forward in putting things right after its loss to Las Vegas in last year's WNBA Finals.
The 2023 season was a magical one for the Aces (+15.3), as they finished ahead of New York (+10.3) by five points in Net Rating. This season, it was New York's turn (+11.7) to finish with a +5.2 edge in that category.
While Game 2 would generally be a spot to take a zig-zag approach, New York is actually performing on par with what we saw from Las Vegas last season in its build-up to a championship run.
And since I'm already invested in New York winning the series, I prefer to bypass picking a side and am instead targeting a play on the total.
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction
Las Vegas won't have to dig too deep into the box score to know why it lost the series opener to the New York Liberty. The good news is that those mistakes are corrigible, and if the Aces can make the necessary adjustments, I like the chances of Game 2 staying under the total.
Aces vs. Liberty Pick: Under 164 points (-110 at DraftKings)
Aces vs. Liberty Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+3.5 -110 | 164 -110 / -110 | +145 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-3.5 -110 | 164 -110 / -110 | -175 |
- Liberty vs. Aces spread: Liberty -3.5, Aces +3.5
- Liberty vs. Aces over/under: 164 points
- Liberty vs. Aces moneyline: Aces +145, Liberty-175
- Liberty vs. Aces pick: Take the under on the total
Las Vegas Aces: Can Aces Slow the Pace?
It was shocking to see Las Vegas get dragged into an up-tempo game against New York in Game 1.
If you look at its final 10 games to close out the regular season, Las Vegas posted a league-best 94.3 Defensive Rating, which was its best performance of any stretch during the campaign. Then, during the first two games of the playoffs, the Aces registered a 92.9 Defensive Rating — the best mark of any team in the postseason.
One thing that stood out was that Las Vegas played much slower during those final 10 games, ranking eighth in possessions (78.5) per 40 minutes, before averaging 76.75 possessions in its playoff series against Atlanta.
Yet, against the Liberty, the pace bumped back up to 79.
New York has enough quality on its roster to adapt to any style. However, the numbers suggest it's not a team that necessarily likes to get out and run. After all, over a 40-game regular season sample size, it finished seventh in pace with 80.12 possessions.
While the Aces were once able to thrive on chaos, that strategy is unlikely to work this time, against a much more disciplined and determined New York side.
New York Liberty: Where Are the Weaknesses?
There shouldn't be too many things the Liberty can improve upon after shooting 50% from the floor in Game 1. New York even took a page out of the Aces' book by being aggressive inside the paint to earn trips to the free-throw line.
While the Aces continued to spam 3-point shots (7-of-25, 28%), New York's attempts (8-of-19, 42%) from beyond the arc were much more economical.
The problem with playing a team like New York is there's a tendency to start rushing shots. Shot selection becomes even more critical, and we've seen moments where the Aces have struggled to make the extra pass.
New York's improved Defensive Rating (99.4 last year to 95.3 this season) should be enough validation that teams must exercise patience when playing against the Liberty.
Opponents have to work even harder to contain the Liberty's ball movement as New York now has more balance with two ball-dominant handlers in each rotation after inserting Leonie Fiebich in the starting lineup in place of Courtney Vandersloot.
Thus, there's not much of a drop-off in shot creation when New York has to go to its second unit
Betting Pick & Prediction for Game 2: Target The Under
Aces head coach Becky Hammon couldn't have been too happy when looking at the box score after Game 1 as Las Vegas allowed 16 fast-break points to New York and scored just six.
Those 10 points were especially crucial as Las Vegas lost 87-77.
Therefore, transition defense is something Hammon will likely focus on in preparation for Game 2. Considering that the total in the series opener only went over by a half point, those adjustments should be enough to keep this game under 164 points.
Liberty vs. Aces Pick: Under 164 Points
How to Watch: Time, Channel, Streaming
| Aces vs. Liberty | Tuesday, October 1 |
| Start Time: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ESPN 2 / ESPN+, YouTube TV |
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
Liberty vs. Aces is scheduled for 7:30 p.m. ET live from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York on Tuesday.
This marquee WNBA matchup between the defending champion Aces and their rivals, the New York Liberty, is on ESPN 2 and streaming on ESPN+, YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
