The Liberty look determined to return to the WNBA Finals after coming up just short against Las Vegas last year. New York has by far been the best team in the league, as it's the only one that boasts a double-digit Net Rating (+12.1).
There's also been a bit of a revenge angle, with the Liberty already going on the road and winning both games against the Aces. A season sweep could be in the cards if New York can win at home on Sunday afternoon.
For Las Vegas, a victory would undoubtedly boost its confidence should they meet again in the postseason.
While the two teams are just about even on offense, this is a matchup in which we expect both defenses to play a significant role.
Below, read for my Aces vs Liberty prediction.
Las Vegas Aces vs. New York Liberty Prediction
Las Vegas continues to deploy the same tactics in 2024 as last year but with far different results. As a result, Las Vegas has become somewhat predictable, with the top defensive teams in the league starting to figure them out.
With the Aces visiting the Big Apple to face the Liberty for the final time in the regular season, we provide our opinion on why the under offers value in this spot.
Aces vs. Liberty Pick: Under 168.5 or better
Aces vs. Liberty Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 168.5 -108o / -112u | +150 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 168.5 -108o / -112u | -180 |
Las Vegas Aces: Need To Find Their Shot Again
2023 was a banner year for the Aces, leading the W in both offensive (113.0) and defensive efficiency. However, as good as the Aces were defensively, their 97.7 rating wouldn't even qualify for a top-four ranking this season.
And with other teams playing better defense, we've seen the Aces' Net Rating plummet nearly 10 points, from +15.3 to +5.8.
One explanation for the Aces' struggles could be regression. After shooting at 37.2% from the perimeter last year, it's down to 34.5%.
Yet, despite a worse shooting percentage, Las Vegas attempts more 3-pointers per game (26.2) than the previous campaign (24.9).
As a result, the Aces now have more empty possessions on offense, allowing their opponents to hang around longer in the game.
While the modern era is much more reliant on the three-point shot, we must consider that it also involves a certain level of randomness. I suppose you can attribute the randomness to such factors as roster turnover.
No matter the reason, it's worth noting that the top three perimeter shooting teams are entirely different from a year ago.
New York Liberty: Stifling the Perimeter
New York is a fascinating study, given how it's approached the 3-point shot. While its shooting percentage is also down roughly three points from 37.4%, it's also attempting slightly fewer shots (29.4 vs. 29.7).
The big difference is that its opponents' 3-point percentage is down from 34.1% to 31.7%.
Thus, New York is, at worst, able to maintain the same margin of success over the opposition from the perimeter.
Since New York's opponents involve the other 11 teams in the league, there's a much greater sample size, which helps reduce randomness.
For instance, I would argue that good defense can be a transferrable asset from one season to another.
One example is New York's ability to run opponents off the 3-point line. Limiting your opponent's perimeter shots reduces their opportunities for 3-point field goals.
The Liberty went from allowing 21.9 3-point attempts to 21.4, resulting in its opponent's 3-point field goals dropping from 7.5 to 6.8 per game.
While you might view these improvements as marginal gains, they can easily account for an additional nine to 12 points on a nightly basis.
Aces vs. Liberty: Trends Point to Defense
Betting Pick & Prediction
There's always a tendency to inflate these totals if we solely focus on the offensive skillsets of the two teams.
However, we should pay closer attention to the defenses, particularly those with quality when they're playing at home.
This total opened at 168.5, and we're starting to see a move to the under. According to our Action Labs database, the under this season is 18-10 with an opening total of 165 or more points after being bet down.
Moreover, the under is a perfect 3-0 when Las Vegas is on the road against a top-four defensive team.
We've gone into great detail about why the Aces' offense isn't as potent as last year. Their best option might be to rely more on their defense to help eliminate the randomness of their 3-point shooting.
