The WNBA playoff series many were hoping for has arrived, as the top-seeded New York Liberty take on the back-to-back defending champion Las Vegas Aces in the semifinals.
Not only is this a matchup between the teams that entered the postseason with the best odds to win the championship, but it's a rematch of last year's championship series that was won by the Aces in four games.
Continue below for my Liberty vs. Aces predictions and my WNBA picks for Sunday, September 29.
New York Liberty vs. Las Vegas Aces Prediction
Everything about this series screams "offense," except for two of the three meetings these teams had during the regular season. Those three games saw Kelsey Plum score 25, 13 and 22 points. The guard is coming off a terrific game against the Storm and will keep the buckets flowing in Game 1 against the high-powered Liberty.
My Aces-Liberty best bet is on Kelsey Plum to score 15+ points in the player prop market, with the best line currently available at FanDuel, according to our live WNBA odds page.
Aces vs. Liberty Pick: Kelsey Plum to Score 15+ Points (-174)
Aces vs. Liberty Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
+4 -110 | 163.5 -106 / -114 | +152 |
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Over/Under | Moneyline |
-4 -110 | 163.5 -106 / -114 | -188 |
Las Vegas Aces: Rare Underdog Spot
It's rare for this Vegas' team to be considered the underdog, but that is the case heading into this series, if ever so slightly. The fourth-seeded Aces come in with plenty of momentum and the league MVP, A'ja Wilson.
Any conversation about the Aces starts there, especially after the historic season Wilson has put together. She averaged 26.9 points, 11.9 rebounds and 2.6 blocks per game, setting WNBA records for both points and rebounds in a season. Wilson did not quite reach those numbers in the sweep of the Seattle Storm in the first round, but she did have scoring nights of 21 and 24 along with rebound totals of eight and 13, while blocking seven shots over the course of two games, so it's not as if she struggled.
Wilson gets much of the attention, and rightfully so. But she is supported by players like Kelsey Plum, who averaged 17.8 points per game during the regular season and then opened up the postseason with a two-point performance that was followed by a 29-point explosion. Her skills as a scorer and facilitator help make the team go, and the same is true about Jackie Young.
Young was third on the team in the regular season at 15.8 points per game, with averages of 5.3 assists and 4.4 rebounds. The scoring and assists were down in the first round but the rebound numbers were up, with the emergence of Tiffany Hayes (14.5 points) and Chelsea Gray (14 points) stepping up against the Storm, with both scoring above their season average.
The Aces did not take as many three-point shots as they normally do in the first round, but the team that finished with the highest scoring average in the W and the league's second-best offensive rating will need to be firing on all cylinders against the high-powered Liberty. The team's care with the basketball will help, as the Aces averaged just 10.8 turnovers per game in the regular season and had the best assist-to-turnover ratio of all teams.
New York Liberty: Flying High
The Liberty earned the top seed in the playoffs by playing complete basketball throughout the entire season. They continued that high-level play in the first round in a sweep over the Atlanta Dream, with their customary balanced approach being too much for the eight seed to handle.
The Liberty were led in the regular season by Breanna Stewart's 20.4 points per game, with the star adding in 8.5 rebounds and 3.5 assists per game. Stewart's scoring saw a dip in the playoffs, as she averaged just 16.5 points per game with 2.5 assists, though her rebound average held up.
As did the play of fellow star Sabrina Ionescu, who averaged 18.2 points per game in the regular season and increased that number to 26.5 in two games against the Dream. Her assist average of seven per game was also above her season average, so offensively she took things to another level.
Similar to the regular season the Liberty were not a two-woman show. Leonie Fiebich (15) and Jonquel Jones (14.5) each averaged in double figures against the Dream, while Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, the team's fourth-leading scorer in the regular season, settled in at 7.5 per game.
The Liberty were second in WNBA in scoring during the season, but boasted the top offensive rating and third-best defensive rating. Their assist-to-turnover ratio was second in the league, and New York finished with the No. 1 rebound percentage.
Aces vs. Liberty: Bet This Kelsey Plum Player Prop
Betting Pick & Prediction
This game and series features some of the best scorers in the WNBA, so for many, the expectation will be high-scoring affairs.
The over/under for Game 1 is 163.5 though, which is less than the teams' scoring averages (a combined 172), and may lead you target the total. However, you may want to take look at their previous matchups before running to bet the over. Although for one of them, the Aces were without Wilson, so tough to draw any significant conclusions there.
At any rate, this game could see a lot of scoring, but even if it doesn't, the Aces will need buckets from someone other than Wilson. Plum erupted in the second game against the Storm and has scored at least 15 points in five of her last eight games. She may not score 29, but she'll find the bottom of the net often.
Liberty vs. Aces Pick: Kelsey Plum to Score 15+ Points (-174) at FanDuel
How to Watch Liberty vs. Aces
| Aces vs. Liberty | Sunday, September 29 |
| Start Time: | 3 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | ABC, ESPN+ |
| Location: | Barclays Center, Brooklyn, New York |
Aces vs. Liberty is scheduled for 3 p.m. ET live from Barclays Center in Brooklyn, New York on Sunday.
This marquee WNBA matchup between the defending champion Aces and their eastern conference rivals, the New York Liberty is on ABC and streaming on ESPN+ and other streaming platforms.
