At 25-13, Las Vegas probably can't do a whole lot to improve its playoff seeding. The Aces occupy the fourth seed and trail the Connecticut Sun by two games in the standings with only two games left in the season.
Las Vegas would need to win out and hope Connecticut loses both games down the stretch to leapfrog the Sun into the third seed.
However, the Aces can't be too concerned with things outside of their control. Over the last three weeks, they've taken more of an inward approach to focus on themselves and the habits that led to back-to-back WNBA titles.
There's been a complete refocus on their defense during these latter stages of the campaign, as they inch ever so closely to the start of the postseason. The Aces have found their groove again, and that could spell trouble for the Seattle Storm on Tuesday night as they face off at 10 p.m. ET on NBA TV.
Las Vegas Aces vs. Seattle Storm Prediction
The Aces are clicking again at the right time heading into the postseason. On Tuesday night, they'll visit a shorthanded Seattle team missing two of its key starters.
Given the Aces' defensive improvements and Seattle's injury report, this is a prime spot to target Las Vegas by adjusting the line and total at BetRivers and using a same-game parlay.
Aces vs. Storm Pick: Same-game parlay (+116): Aces -3.5 | Under 168.5 points, BetRivers
Storm vs. Aces Odds
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -108 | 162.5 -112o / -112u | -335 |
| Storm Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -115 | 162.5 -112o / -112u | +260 |
- Aces vs. Storm point spread: Aces -7.5 | Storm +7.5
- Aces vs. Storm over/under: 162.5 total points scored
- Aces vs. Storm moneylines: Aces -335 | Storm +260
Las Vegas Aces: Defense Suddenly Clicking
Las Vegas visits Seattle on a three-game winning streak and has also won seven of its last eight contests. The only blemish was a tightly contested 75-71 road loss to the New York Liberty in a game played without its best player, A'ja Wilson, who sat out with an ankle injury.
After returning from the Olympic break, Las Vegas got off to a slow start, winning just once in four games. Then there was a 93-90 road loss to a Dallas Wings team that's been at or near the bottom of the standings for much of the year.
However, since that loss, Las Vegas has held its opponents under 80 points for eight straight games. No other team in the league has a better defensive rating than the Aces (93.4) during that span. Before that, the Aces ranked seventh with a 101.3 defensive rating.
Las Vegas is also playing with much more control, averaging 78.25 possessions per 40 minutes — the fourth-slowest pace during that span.
It's worth noting that the Aces previously averaged 81.94 possessions per 40 minutes, which was the fastest in the league. Thus, there's been a clear shift in how the Aces are currently playing, as perhaps the slower pace allows them to manage the game better while conserving enough energy to put forth more of an effort on defense.
Whatever is behind the reasoning for change might not matter so much, given the excellent results they're having of late.
Seattle Storm: Blistering Pace Masks Inefficiencies
The Storm also enter this game on a winning streak after putting together four straight victories. There's a lot to like about the team, which ranks in the top half in offense and defensive efficiency and boasts a +5.8 Net Rating.
Seattle is an interesting case study because it's not often you see a team that's ranked fourth defensively play at such a blistering pace. The Storm average 81.29 possessions per 40 minutes, which is second only to Dallas.
I suspect the Storm play with more pace to mask some inefficiencies on offense. Seattle is a woeful perimeter team, ranking dead last from beyond the arc at 28.6%. It also ranks 10th with six 3-point field goals per game.
Seattle tries to turn its defense into offense as much as possible, ranking third in points off turnovers (17.7) and second in fast-break points (11.5).
Thus, it's not the half-court game that opposing teams need to worry so much about; it's when there's chaos and Seattle can get into its transition offense to pick up easy buckets.
Aces vs. Storm: Betting Pick & Prediction
When I first saw this schedule with the Aces on the road, I was hoping we'd get a line with Las Vegas at around a 2.5 or 3-point favorite.
However, the sportsbooks dashed those hopes by opening with the visitors laying 4.5 points.
I also considered a play on the under, given how well the Aces have been playing defensively. Unfortunately, there's been a significant market move from the opening number of 165.5 down to 162.5.
We've also seen the spread tick up, with the Aces as high as a 7.5-point favorite at some sportsbooks.
While I agree with the initial market sentiment, these line moves also reflect some critical news, with Seattle's leading scorer, Jewell Loyd (19.7 PPG), set to miss the game with a knee injury. A concussion has also ruled out the Storm's starting center, Ezi Magbegor (11.7 PPG).
WNBA rosters generally aren't deep enough to withstand the loss two key starters.
Given the line moving against us, the best way to recover some value is through a same-game parlay. At BetRivers, we can adjust the Aces to -3.5 and the total up to 168.5 to take the under. This parlay gives us a slight boost on our odds to +116.
Watch to see whether the sportsbooks put up a halftime/full-time option, because that certainly would be another way to approach this matchup.
Storm vs. Aces Pick: Same-game parlay (+116): Aces -3.5 | Under 168.5 points, BetRivers
How to Watch Aces vs. Storm
| Aces vs. Storm | Tuesday, September 17 |
| Start Time: | 10 p.m. ET |
| TV / Streaming: | NBA TV & YouTube TV |
| Location: | Climate Pledge Arena, Seattle, Washington |
Storm vs. Aces is scheduled for 10 p.m. ET live from Climate Pledge Arena in Seattle, Washington on Tuesday. This marquee WNBA matchup between the defending champion Aces and Jewell Loyd and the Storm is on NBA TV and streaming on YouTube TV and other streaming platforms.
