| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -108 | 166 -112o / -108u | +124 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -112 | 166 -112o / -108u | -148 |
The Las Vegas Aces returned home and showed up big in a win-or-go-home Game 3 on Friday, beating the New York Liberty 95-81.
Their reinvigorated defense limited Sabrina Ionescu to four points and held the Liberty to 38.8% shooting from the field. Still, New York hasn’t lost three straight games all season, and no team in WNBA history has returned from being down 2-0 in a series.
Now, the Aces are back at home for Game 4 and their backs are still against the wall, so I’m looking to take advantage of their position with these props.
Liberty vs. Aces Player Prop Picks
Chelsea Gray Assists Leader (+165)
The "Point Gawd" recorded seven assists in back-to-back outings now and has started to look more and more comfortable since his midseason return.
The Aces are at their best, especially against a typically stellar New York defense, with Gray providing her mind-bending assists that allow them to score in transition and difficult spots.
Ionescu (+185) has notched five assists in every game of the series and was given special defensive attention in Game 3 that limited her scoring opportunities. The Liberty need points from her in this matchup more than the Aces need points from Gray.
Sure, Breanna Stewart (+1100) could end up busting out eight assists again like she did in Game 2, but Gray is the short shot here for a reason.
Jackie Young 6+ Rebounds (+180)
With Jonquel Jones, A’ja Wilson and Stewart on the floor, betting an over on a rebounds prop on anyone else can be intimidating. However, Young has notched six or more rebounds in four of her last five games.
So much attention is being placed on the bigs, but Young always finds a way to contribute for the Aces, whether picking up the slack on scoring when Kelsey Plum is having an off night or hustling after boards. This +180 price makes this worth a shot, with the Aces needing all the Young hustle they can get to stave off elimination.
A'ja Wilson Under 34.5 Points + Rebounds (-112)
The 2024 MVP has been a major focal point for the Liberty’s defense and rightfully so. Jones is a considerable challenge for Wilson down low, with only six of Wilson’s 20 points in the last game coming from inside the paint.
As a result, she has to rely on her midrange game more, which obviously isn’t a huge issue since she has averaged over 21 points per game in this series. Yet, she is uncharacteristically averaging less than double digits in boards so far this series. Wilson has only gone over this total (34.5) in three of her last ten games.
Plus, New York had the third-best defensive rating in the regular season and yet gave up 91 points to the Aces in Game 3. They should be looking to shore up their defense, which should cause trouble for the Aces offense.
